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Senior Advisor

Disclaimer first then

I am not saying we are going to have a 2012 type crop

However we could be headed for 145-155 and 40-44

I know that seems impossible to some

We shall see
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7 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Disclaimer first then

I think those yields are absolutely possible, MT.  See we`ve been spoiled in the rain coming "just before it`s too late" but there`s no reason that "this year" won`t be the exception, because this crop is more dependent on timely rains than any crop I can remember.   Around here if you were crazy and planted in mid April or if you threaded the needle and planted in the sweet spot of May5-10 it looks good* (note the asterisk) the majority of corn was planted in that 5 day window, so to those not wanting to run out of corn that is a good thing.

 

But I know a guy that planted in that Mother`s Day time period and the first drink that corn got was a cold one, it was a disaster and ended up replanting June 1 which by then was too dry, that was one disaster into the next.  Now our good* corn had to go though those same conditions, it`s a little behind and has good potential dependent on Mother Nature more than usual and the forecast isn`t cooperating.

 

On the beans it`ll be "August" but in my chair today I`ll be shocked of a above 45 nat yield, expecting more like 40.

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Advisor

Re: Disclaimer first then

We will be at or near 2012  here.  All the forecast rain failed to materialize.   1/2 inch since Mid May.  I am reluctant to even make my second pass on bean spraying.   No fungicide on corn, it is basically finished, especially early corn which has pollinated and doesn't have enough moisture to even sustain the plants, which are abut 5' tall max. and even wilted and twisted before sunrise  Even areas that got some rain around here last week are going backwards again.   Maybe the rest of the country is awesome, and I can only speak for my little So IL craphole location.    

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Contributor

Re: Disclaimer first then

There will be pockets of 2012 type yields, unfortunately. However the national yield will be nowhere close to 120 or 40, like 2012. The majority of the corn belt is just not that stressed......yet. The next 6 weeks will tell the story. Either the drought intensifies in areas that matter, or it keeps raining and we end up with plenty of corn. Beans won't tell their story for awhile yet. The Japanese beetles look be coming on strong this year, who knows. 

 

 

If 120 and 40 were to come into play, we would go into full blown ration mode with prices doubling in a few months.

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Advisor

Re: Disclaimer first then

Jeez tiger, why always assume the crop is dead. 140 is 30 bushel under trend. I really don't see that much of a bad yield.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Disclaimer first then

You want to talk 2012 crops. I took these photos in the middle of July 2012 in McLean County, Illinois. So, you all in Illinois. Is this year looking like these photos below?

 

Man above corn.jpg

 

The Corn story.jpg

 

Mike

 

 

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Advisor

Re: Disclaimer first then

Maybe just an isolated pocket....but yes.   actually worse. here.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Disclaimer first then

Maybe worse in sw........ The crop is smaller and stressing with less maturity in isolated spots.

 

Not a good sign to go hot through the holiday and not see some rain.

Not good to be stressing corn.

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