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Senior Advisor

Re: Do Big Crops Get Bigger?

Understand what you're saying, yet need to consider that there are still many smaller farmers out here that are entirely, or mostly, cash marketers, with some cash forward contracting and farm storage.  The adage discussed is absolutely meaningful, although it really just substantiates what we already thought we knew. 


On the other hand, there can still be some surprises:  early frost, excessive weather events (wind, rain, hail, snow, heat, cold), insects, disease, etc., and market changes (surprise export commitments, expanded useage rates, an/or the opposite, etc.).  Not to say any of this will happen, it's just that the cash marketer can take advantage if any of these do happen.

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Re: Do Big Crops Get Bigger?



I can't disagree with the points you made about crop marketing.  My post addresses the narrower question of how to interpet the recent USDA yield forecast.  The issue is the predictability of changes in USDA yield forecasts from month to month.  My main conclusion is that it is very hard to predict changes from August to September based on information available in August when the USDA forecast is made. 



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Re: Do Big Crops Get Bigger?

I agree that it is immaterial whether "big crops get bigger" or not.


But specific to this case we haven't accounted for ear weight on most of the crop and I think it is reasonable assumption given very benign pollination weather and mostly adequate moisture since that ear weight will be better than average.


The one caveat that is implied is maturity- if ears aren't developed enough to get a good kernel count on then you have to assume that maturity is behind- no news there either.


BTW, a lot of the N. Belt got nipped in 1992 and 2009 but aggregate yield still rose.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Do Big Crops Get Bigger?

It is true --------- after they are in the bin.  Big crops take time to distribute and oversupply the immediate need longer.  That would refer to November -January

And we would all remember that if we weren't harvesting this crop in April.  Thank you usda for teaching us to spend more time trading the crop we don't have. 

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