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Veteran Advisor

Do I dare say HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

I hope all had a good christmas.  You got together with family and friends, made new memories, and thought about times go by.

i hope all enjoyed at least several good meals, had fun, and remembered "the reason for the season".........

and maybe, you watched with your kids, grandkids, great grandkids, or yourself, how the grinch sole christmas..........

well writting this, i kind of get the feeling of the ginch story.........but maybe Happy New Year, rather than Christmas......

We have discussed, in depth, the reason for the markets being where they are, and some insights where we might be going.....

just looked at the local bids, and here is what i am looking at for the new crop in 2017


commodity      current bid    NC 2017  basis

wheat                2.81              3.34        -.95

milo                   2.46              2.86        -.90

corn                  2.76               3.11        -.65

beans               8.74                8.86       -.95


I guess I should be happy......note, everything is higher next year than what it is right now....

but on the other hand, cost are going up tho.......

but, i guess if i was smart, i would lock in the price of the grain, and lock in the inputs, and then figure out how much i will make,

and then figure out how we will make it on that margin.......

then we throw in the uncertain factors.........if you look at NWS long range stuff, shows less than or equal chances of rainfall in

this nothing like we had this year......and overall the temps look above average.

while getting almost 50 inches of rain, the topsoil is dry, and it all went down into the soil profile since it has been dry soo long.

then looking ahead, talk is no ARC payments this fall, since we had "such a good year", this past year.........i don't know about

you but that little check that come in October was welcome...may not see it in the comming year.

Looking at the crystal ball.......don't expect help from washington, if anything, even less, dispite the rural area supporting the

president elect.  We all beat our chests on how we got him in there, but consider, we only make up 2% of the population, do you

really think we are the ones that got him the jobs ??......and why the ag secy has not be appointed..........

rather, notice how much linkage to oil industry all the secy's have right now......time to read the tea leaf's...........


God i hope i'm wrong, but 2017 might not be a good year......many are in multi-year losses.......and this might be the final straw

for a number this year........some see that as "normal", or "good business"......i'm sorry, i don't......just that fewer people in

our small communities, less support for the smaller communities, the big boys i really don't believe support our local economys,

they tend to go with "the best deals", and can be seen shopping in the "nice stores", miles away........


I intend to have a mixed drink this new years........despite doctors recommendations not to...............but i don't know if

i'll be drinking to forget, or to ease the pain of the comming sorrow...........


i think i'll have a double







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19 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: Do I dare say HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

Remember mid June what the prices were? Well if you would have sold you would be eating prime rib and worrying about your taxes. Things aren't that bad if you execute the opportunities that present themselves. Yes there are risks in doing so, i realize that
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Honored Advisor

Re: Do I dare say HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

Well, if things really are bad the dumbest thing you can do is drink, it`ll make things worse and it doesn`t even taste good.  Coca-Cola is better for you, the caffine will get you going, though you might get a lecture from your dentist Smiley Happy


But as far as a politician or Sec of Ag helping us...if the price goes up we`ll just grow more, we`re like a weinner dog chasing his tail, we wouldn`t know what to do even if we did catch it. Probably the majority of land is opperated by individuals that either really have it good or are sure convincingly pretending that they have it good.   And the last 20 years their message to the Ag Department was "Git outta my way and let me farm!"  I`ve said it myself, well they`ve pretty much left us alone and this is what we git. 


Look at the hog industry the animal rights and envirnmental whackos did that industry a favor in slightly curtailing their all out expansion, there`d really be even more of a glut of pork they weren`t slowed down a little.


Until the majority of farm groups go to Washington with the message that we want to go back to set-asides and government owned grain reserves (something we all claim to hate) I don`t know what else politicians can do "for" us.  


If Mother Nature gave us a drought and cut S.A`s production in half and here everyone`s production was given a equal 20% haircut, that would be the best 2017 New Year`s present.  But there you go, the next year we`d be plowing up golf courses and even the old lady`s Begonia patch $$$$$$$$$$$

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Honored Advisor

Re: Do I dare say HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

This guy's glass is plus half full

Honored Advisor

Re: Do I dare say HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

Maybe this is my problem..  I am just slightly biased?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Do I dare say HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

kyu is right I would have felt better.......  not sure it would be euphoric,,, but better...if I had priced everything in the spring..... hind sight is important... and it is important to study when we made good decisions and lucky ones....   Why we are fortunate not necessarily wise.  There is always the possibility that the next 6 months will make that wise choice look like "no choice at all".

Remember when your playing the "what if" game to draw the conclusion your anticipating, take a minute or two to find a way to see it from a different perspective.  There is seldom "all good" or "all bad" in a decision.  Every choice has a cost,  even that golf course I been plowing for three years.  I am not sure the production from that endeavor is going to replace the energy lost or the damaged 5 iron.


BA,  farmers are not that stupid. If greed is our driver we deserve the condemnation of fools.   Just like voters, we make the choices without much choice way too often.  As I type this, the girl from "big bang" is on a fox news ad. denouncing factory farming.  She's brainless, sells herself in soft porn and is paid way too much, thinks animals need protection and food and blames those who provide animals food and protection.  Go figure...she's programed to repeat what she keeps her in a job.  But don't kid yourself, she is targeting us in American ag. because we compete with the poor farmer in India, or whatever else maintains a demon status she needs to feel sanctified for the guilt she carries.  Please, lets do our job and offer this girl a rewarding job in "free range" chicken production.

Is Greed a farmers only motivation or hers.  It has to be very stressfull knowing what is the right thing to do and having to give it up for the poverty of a lowly acting job.


I say happy new year to the we march on into the gray blur of power greedy disinformation........ 

"The unfortunate reality of this form of communication we are more likely to talk about nothing than something".....  Meg Ryan movie quote.

Technology and our inability to control it will continue to be the threat and promise to us all.


Find a way to enjoy, because the picture is changing very quickly...

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Honored Advisor

Re: Do I dare say HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

Hobby that first video is "priceless"

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Do I dare say HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

Herte's a video for UK organic dairy Yeo Valley


you have to watch at least a couple of time to catch all the nuances!




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Honored Advisor

Re: Do I dare say HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

Hey SW, well we have farmers like ElCheapo that "things are bad, getting sec of ag yet.  What are they gonna do for us????" I got that, I hear it everyday.  But then on the other hand these 25,000 acre Bigshots aren`t complaining, they`re building bins, tiling, renting 4,000 acres of new land in a chunk.  It`s no longer "Farmer Brown is retiring and I picked up his quarter!!!! Smiley Happy  Smiley Happy Smiley Happy  ".


To me it`s looking like those that never are happy with prices ie, inputs too high and grain too low...."what are they gonna do for us???" .   Well, with the "Freedom to farm bill" we told the government to get lost, they pretty much did, so this is what we get and shouldn`t pitch a fit.  The Bigshots seemed to`ve figured out doing things in volume gives them a edge and maybe we do want them to be last man standing, cheapest possible food for consumers, ect.  But farmers are like rat`s teeth, they always got to be chewing to wear them down.  So when people complain, fine but tell us what you want to see, because we are price takers, not price makers.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Do I dare say HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

BA for a long time now it has been land owners ........ those highly educated friends who have moved away from the farm and inherited their 1/4 of grandpa's life savings in dirt,,,,, who have voted to cut funding from their tennant farmers .............. often a family member......... without a thought labeling him one of those rich farmers because he farms for 10 of those educated land owners.

So limits have been placed on him so he cannot receive government assistance above a level of poverty farming while each of them pockets 10 to 20K additional income along with their normal rent on $0 investment.  That " bigshot" hasn't got a prayer of receiving anything more in government assistance on his $500 to $700 annual investment per acre... on somebody elses ground...


Soo what is he supposed to be doing other than trying to milk another gallon out of his "factory farm"............ Who would they complain too.... Those educated folk out there want their food to come from the poorest of the poor...... and eat the nutrient depleted, insect & mold invested crops and live a life that is "perfect in every way".  Then  one could see that leaving the old family farm was the wise move and whoever stayed there "sure let the old place run down".


Doing things in volume has been the only option to stay on the farm.  Well maybe that is not true... There have been a few of the good old cousins and brothers who have stayed behind lived a sacrificial  life to see that the others have a steady return and a place to come back to and call home.  Not many of those fools left and aren't we glad we got an education?


Unhappy with price............. pass that bottle around........ It takes a lot of eggnog secret ingredient to believe that farmers can live without a knowledge of their economic position.... I have to assume you are saying the bigger farmers are complaining about prices too low............ or expenses too high no matter what......  

Maybe the larger farmers , knowing that the small farmer welfare should end and probably will is asking the US Government to do what it was elected to do and enforce the laws on the books...  in the way of monopolizing market shares in inputs costs and crop price fixing...   Too much to ask for??  Smiley Happy



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