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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Does The Crop Get Bigger Or Smaller From Now?

Weather seems like a two-edged sword right now.  Some are getting wonderful rain and some are getting way too much or not near enough.

 

My guess is the yield hits count up faster than yield gains, so at some point I'd start wondering if the bloom is off the rosy yield picture.  Oh, we'll probably have plenty, but how much plenty?

 

Corn here looks as good as I've ever seen it.  Does that mean we'll have a bin-buster?  There is pollination and kernel fill to get through, in addition to wind.  I don't hear talk of disease or pests so far around here so far.

 

15" beans are about all canopied, even the late one's.  There are weed escapes but there is not much talk of pests or disease in beans yet, although white mold could be a issue in weather like this I don't see it in my fields.

 

I think I'm neutral on yield increases.  I guess I'm leaning to wondering if the crop will be very good but not the headlines we see.

 

What is your view?

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8 Replies
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Does The Crop Get Bigger Or Smaller From Now?

Crops are always a factor of deterioration.  They sprout with maximum potential and are hailed, blown, and drowned into reality.

 

They never get bigger in reality ..... but in the fantacy world of price discovery no holds are barred.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Does The Crop Get Bigger Or Smaller From Now?

Do yields start at 0 and work their way up?  Or start at USDA numbers and work their way down?    That is the question.   Smiley Wink

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Does The Crop Get Bigger Or Smaller From Now?

Yields always work down from early potential. I repeat.
But nothing to do with usda numbers early or late.
USDA is just farmopoly with a soundtrack selling adds and marketing services. Corn yield starts out high at optimum potential and works Dow’s with every stress point.
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Does The Crop Get Bigger Or Smaller From Now?

Down — without the rewrite of spell check
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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Does The Crop Get Bigger Or Smaller From Now?

Well then, I must be the only guy out there that if I harvested my corn and soybeans today, I would get exactly zero bushels.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Does The Crop Get Bigger Or Smaller From Now?

I am calling "trick question"  ......... so liability is off.    🙂

 

It is a cultural change of the last 40 years....... Usda is governmental and lives on borrowed money.

 

Prior we talked about the new crop condition, but we traded the "on hand" supply and priced the on hand supply.

 

Now we trade and price the imaginary new crop of the future  and beat the on hand crop over the head with it.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Does The Crop Get Bigger Or Smaller From Now?

I know there`s nice crops out there, but the crop will get smaller.  I drove by unplanted fields on I-90 today, beans have wet feet stunted, corn roots had no reason to go down, so nitrogen is either below the roots or is spending the summer in the Gulf of Mexico right now.  Will the poor crops overcome the good crop ratings? That question is above my pay grade, I`ll have an answer for you by October.   I also see weedy bean fields, we`re looking at a week (after the 4th) to get in the field so Flexstar is borderline and the weeds aren`t going to sit still waiting to be sprayed for a week, they`re growing some are 18"-2` right now. Gotta send out a plug for Zidua, best time I spent was spraying pre-emerge with that.

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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: Does The Crop Get Bigger Or Smaller From Now?

See the message in Crop Talk about weedy soybeans.  Read 'em and weep.

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