Does Weather Support Big Yield Possiblities?

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

Another post asked if we were ready to market a very large crop.

This post asks how likely a large crop is to happen.

Illinois ag experts looked at weather in high yielding years and compared it with the weather we're seeing in 2014.  They conclude that not all the stars line up - Iowa had too much rain in June, for example.  But many stars line up - July is starting off cool, for instance, and there seems to be at least a reasonable possibility that 2014 could be a big, if not huge, yield year.

This article is a couple of pages, but it's not hard to follow.  It helps to read it all rather than to just skip to the summary, as there are important details in the article that don't come out as clearly in the summary as one might wish..  At least to me.

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2014/07/2014-us-average-corn-yield-big-or-really-big.html

"What emerges from this analysis is that very high U.S. corn yields have been associated with summer precipitation that was near to slightly above average and summer temperatures that were well-below average in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa. "

"Implications

Expectations of a U.S. average corn yield above trend value in 2014 seem justified by current crop condition ratings. A yield above trend by as much as the average (14.1 bushels) of the previous six highest yielding years since 1960 would be 173.6 bushels per acre. However, June weather conditions in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa were not entirely consistent with those experienced in the previous six highest yielding years relative to trend."

" History suggests that cool, moist conditions need to persist through August for the U.S. average yield to be equivalent to that of the other high yielding years examined in this article. "

I picked these quotes to give you a flavor of what the article says, but you have to read it yourself in it's entirety to get the full message.  It's not that long.

I'm out of touch on where we are with El Nino and whether or if it will kick in this summer.  If it stays cool, bins could be busting.  But there seems to be no guarantee yet that all the stars will line up.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

My take on this, we are no better than 2013 at this point, and 2013 wiped some 09 and 04 records off. I don't see 165.

Is there a good crop out there, yep, and the reality of a carryout number near or below 1B all in one.

IA is weak, IL is probably no better than 2013, IN is going to try to make a run, NE is good but too many scars to do a full pull, Dakotas and MN are well; rough, Places like WI, OH, KY, MI had a fantastic 2013 with an avg 2014 coming, MO is going to make a run. IMO we also have some hidden scars from this spring that will show in the combine later.

[BA Deere]

Our only "hope" is if a Dome of Doom sets up, as shallow rooted as this crop is that could give the yields a military haircut.  Other than that, break out the Romen noodles. 

[farsider]

2009 is the high water mark but Illinois didn't have as good a year as those states that surround it, it was actually down from 2008. Data shows it was down 4 bu. from 08 while states like IA up 11, MO 9, WI 16, IN 11 and Mn 11.
http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli/cuweather/2009/ann2009.pdf

Illinois looks to have had the same cooler growing season but was there too much moisture?

[timetippingpt]

One way of thinking of an answer to your question farsider... how many bottomland acres have been destroyed. From anything that I can find, very very few...thus there has not been too much water in general (compare to 93, etc, lots of acres lost). Plus if you have denitiried because you put on fall N like a crazy person...well, you can run on 28 today with a tall rig and rescue most of the yield loss.

That is what ECIN was doing in those pics, applying N very late to assure its available to the plant, instead of a silly fall application. Farmers are pretty smart about how to fix the N issue, so I doubt the water pulls down the national average as much as some are hoping.

All about temps really at this point. A cool July almost always helps corn yields (unless it frosts). Maybe not beans but beans are only about rainfall in August anyway. jmo

[Palouser]

Highs in the 50's and 60's next week for the upper midwest. [Lows in the 40's to very low 50's on Wednesday] Does that qualify as contributing to a bumper crop? Maybe?

Supposed to be a 'summer polar vortex'.

[farsider]

Funny time, I asked why Illinois bucked the trend in 2009 by having a lower yield then 2008 when most of the states around them had double digit gains. Illinois had temps below average and yet they declined year to year, can you answer that question ? As for your agenda! well if there wasn't record rainfall and very little loss of nitrogen, why would anyone be throwing more money that won't be recouped on a crop that is getting less valuable every day? Why shoot ECIN didn't even get in on all the heavy rain and he's adding nitrogen. we just got back in the fields here last week,still going around those non existent drowned out spots on some farms but you can believe what ever you want. I know there is a very good crop coming, it's not going to be unbelievable though.

[lsc76cat]

Palouser:  Where are you seeing highs in the 50's forecasted?

I checked Accuweather's monthly forecast for locations from Spokane to Billings, Bismarck & Grand Forks, Minneapolis, Chippewa Falls and some locations near the Great Lakes.  None showed those temps for next week.

Coolest highs I saw was mid 60's to low 70's for Bismarck and Grand Forks. (which certainly ain't very warm)

[Palouser]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/07/10/poor-mans-polar-vortex-to-mak...

[Slim123]

Yesterday while listening to long time weatherman for WCCO radio in Minnesota, Mike Lynch. He forecasted the coldest July in 18 years for Minnesota this July.