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Veteran Contributor

Does a person take a cookie??

Today the Dec. contract closed above 4.50

This 4.50 price was seen by many as a major stumbling block, to higher prices

Now that we have closed above that 4.50 number, what does everybody think the next target might be

Or: do you think we are at or very close to the high for Dec. corn

I think we have some more room to run, but 5.00 might seem a bit out of reach

However, many have said for some time that 5.00 is not impossible, by any stretch or the imagination

Once a market decides to run, it can make the best of traders very humble, in a very short time

Then these folks panic and want out of their short positions and the market becomes irrational

Of course, if one has the nerve to wait,  market volitility is our best friend

I have found, from time to time, that it doesn't have to make any sense, the market will hurt the most people, it possibly can

Maybe that is why, so many advocate selling in small increments

I was offered a very good price today and took a cookie

At least the price looked good compared to what I expected a short time ago

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4 Replies
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Senior Contributor

Re: Does a person take a cookie??

Well, I just took one, a very small one but it will taste good whether the price goes up or down. 

$4.07

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Senior Advisor

Re: Does a person take a cookie??

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

6-10 and 8-14 look similar.

Shallow roots and pollinating corn with that forecast

LMAO

12.2 and 3.2

Worst possible scenario. Hammer this crop in May and June with wet feet them smash it with heat and no rain during critical repo time

Combines will tell the final chapter of just how much wet June feet and hear in July can do to hammer corn yields. Disaster on a national scale, hardly. More than enough problems to knock 1B plus off the USDA guess, certainly.

Do I think corn is going to $8 and beans to $18, NO.

But corn is a $1 too cheap and beans $2-$3 too cheap.

Just saying
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Does a person take a cookie??

I grabbed a hold of a very good basis May/June 2016 delivered a short time ago

However, one has to remember this is CDN which is less than 80 cent

However, with the basis and todays July 16 for June/July 2016 delivery F.O.B the enduser

I sold some for 5.50 CDN today. Was a lot more than I expected a short time ago, so I took it

The very next day that basis dropped by 20 cent

Currently, the offer for next July 2016 is 5.10 cash

I suppose one can win or lose at the basis game, but when basis is good I will take it and price the rest of the contract later

I know the enduser has my corn locked up, [booked] but at my decision as to what basis and futures price they pay

If the basis is crappy, like today, then I won't sell to them

Especially at this time for new crop corn, basis has to be good or I will wait

If futures look good, but basis is not so good, then one can always hedge on the CBOT, but that may not be for everybody

Margin calls can reduce a person to a whimpering ??? when explaining to the wife, where all the money went

Of course the wife always says to get out of the market and stop the bleeding

That's when I say to the wife she can do the marketing, or tell me to sell or not to sell, any time she wants

As in right now, do I sell or not, the market closes in 15 minutes

Tomorrow is turn around Tuesday or something like that

It still doesn't work, when the margin calls come

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Honored Advisor

Re: Does a person take a cookie??

I believe that the price run up recently has taken a good deal of corn out of the bins.   How much is left?  I have no idea.  What I do know is that the local ethanol plant has brought their basis back to 0.......after being -.10 just a few days ago.  This just might be a telling tale.   I took that cookie on some bushels a few days ago......and now corn is about 20 cents better tonight.

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