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Senior Contributor

Does anyone regret welding the bin doors shut?

Just asking.  

 

As to the electronic trading impacting commodity prices, It would not help if we all had our own seat on the board of trade and our own personal broker to advise us we would mostly be a victim of our own inertia. Instead of doing something positive or negative, we choose to do nothing.

 

So now it looks like poor quality wheat and substandard corn and bean crop, so why haven't we turned the commodity bulls loose? Well we got some concerns in the chinese stock market ans still some concerns about Greece and so many want to avoid risk exposure.

 

So when will you sell? When the combines start or when you admit the grains will collapse further? So your selling decisions may be based on price improvment or on prospects of further collapsing prices.

 

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17 Replies
Advisor

Re: Does anyone regret welding the bin doors shut?

I take it you sold every bushel at the top and then some for the next three years until the price rallies again and then you are undersold. What is the point of making such a post anyway? Sometimes we are the bug and sometimes we are the windshield--just depends on the year.
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Does anyone regret welding the bin doors shut?

Always laugh about using a welder...we find bolts are far more practical. Plus, we do put the bolts back in AFTER the bin is empty. Smiley Wink

 

I certainly did not expect the severity of the decline, but the timing of it was pretty easy to see coming. This has to be a gift to any End-User in the eastern half of the country. IF I were in the area of huge corn yields (IA/NE/MN/WI/ND/SD) protecting the basis might be a good idea if possible. It is going to have be wide enough to afford to rail it to the e-plants in IN/OH/MI. jmo  Ray must be simply drooling over how little he is going to have to pay to get corn in 9 weeks.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Does anyone regret welding the bin doors shut?

now, now....you know I represent all that is considered evil in the grain business.....

 

even though the last thing folks worry about with the big C is whether the checks will cash!

 

we just took on another 1.5 inches in the last hour amid flash flood warnings

 

4-5+ inches since Friday...yeah, I know that puts us in "slacker" category compared to the ECB, Missouri, and other places....

 

you know it is pretty soggy when people call the last week of July and don't know how much rain they just got!

Esteemed Advisor

Re: Does anyone regret welding the bin doors shut?

That is a good sign for them.

 

Just for the record, my estimate is that IN corn will come in about 5 bu. or so under average, so 10 under trend. Hardly a disaster by historic standards. Probably same percentage under on beans, whatever bushels those are for IN. The quality will probably be extremely poor (just using wheat as a guide which normally works), so folks are going to want to store it. BAD IDEA I expect.

 

I could get kind of bullish wheat tomorrow. Bought from the funds in June, sold to them on June 30th, might as well buy it from them again. Computers aren't all that smart sometimes. :-)

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Contributor

Re: Does anyone regret welding the bin doors shut?

Same here... Continuously snicker about utilizing a welder...we discover jolts are much more handy. Additionally, we do set the jolts back in AFTER the bin is vacant

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Senior Advisor

Re: Does anyone regret welding the bin doors shut?

went thru this with 09 and 10 crop

 

locked the bins and only moved what absolutely had to go and stored the rest for the run that eventually came

 

was selling $7 and $8 corn and $16 and $18 beans by summer of 11 and 12.  moved some 3 year old corn and 2 year old beans.  pays for a lot of on farm storage quick

 

13 was a wash.  sold corn for over $5 and got a huge basis spike on beans to push em into $13-$15 range

 

14 is still up in the air.  what corn is out the door left over $5 and beans with basis pop almost got $13 for em.  remainder will either move and buy back on board or carry over into next spring/summer

 

15, dont know.  still a long ways from having anything.  the way the weather has been acting might not get to harvest anything and if we do it might be on frozen ground

 

I do know one thing.  there is going to be a huge sucking sound for beans down here.  and corn likely will come up short too considering the epicenter for PP corn in MO is a stones throw away from my beer cooler.

 

I am actually getting very antzy and looking to buy into this huge sell off.  I just cant decide where.

 

PS, I dont think corn is going back to $7 or $8, but $3 is too cheap.  beans, dunno.  $9 is too cheap.  locally $12-$14 might end up being what it takes to move em

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Honored Advisor

Re: Does anyone regret welding the bin doors shut?

The crop at MT' s place may see those #'s but 80ish% in my estimation will go no matter the price.

 

Rent, bills, bank loans, mach pmts will put rubber under it .

 

 

BTW I've never welded, bolted, landlocked a bin door.  Seems as though that pill box with a gun turrent on top at the top of the driveway overlooking the bin site is enough deterrent.

 

If this price decline continues my plan may have to change onto forcing all visitors to fill their trunks with grain just to get it gone.

 

Pretty sure I have room for this year's crop or Lack thereof

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Senior Contributor

Re: Does anyone regret welding the bin doors shut?

Actuallyjust the opposite. I one of those that thinks those perma bulls make a good arguement. It can't go down because crop conditions are horrible. Unfortunately I'm wronger than most and I make terrible sales. 

 

But then there were those that talked about welding the bin door shut and I wonder if they stuck with it or dumped their inventory, I would assume they still got it because they wouldn't lie to us and then do exactly the opposite.

 

Be assured I am not bragging. You would have quite a struggle doing a worse job of marketing than I.  Yes Inerta is the blame. The market goes down and I think it will recover. It goes down again and I do nothing. and all the while my inventory is in commercial storage. Talk about a loser. 

 

So if your feeling sad just notice your doing better than Don.

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Highlighted
Veteran Contributor

No Regrets...

on welding the bins...  Broke the welds the past month!

 

(Actually we just use sealant...)

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