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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Dollar ain`t lookin` so good

Broke through 90.  The $1.9 Trillion porkulus "covid" bill will take the national debt over $30 Trillion.  Cheaper dollars driving the Dow to new records, 130% debt to GDP..."Dear Greece, I`m sorry for having made fun of you in the past". 

I`ll stick my neck out and say, I have not contracted any new crop, the risk of hyperinflation is on the map, maybe the Fed can contain it as they`ve done in the past or perhaps this time it`s too big.   I don`t want to be be obligated to deliver $12 beans in federal reserve notes and have the dollar to drop to 70.  They used to say in Brazil they`d hold their crop as a hedge against inputs inflation, perhaps we are there? 

LaNina might reappear in the summer, then Katey bar the door or China cancels orders, we raise  60 bu beans on 92 mil acres and we go right back in the $8 bean soup?   However a 51bu trend on 91 mil acres is still "pipeline" and not likely prices would exactly fall out of bed.   We could drop all through summer and a guy will kick himself for not jumping on $12 beans, IMO new crop beans should be $15 to cover the risk, however if new crop goes to $15 that will only admit that there`s a problem and $20 beans will be warranted  Smiley Happy

But they say, Brazilian soybean meal is in the Carolina ports $40 cheaper than domestic. So, ado ado. 

16 Replies
giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Dollar ain`t lookin` so good

Also, if the Reddit crowd learns to open a Futures account then Soybeans will be in the $50's Smiley Very Happy

roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Dollar ain`t lookin` so good

Unless the pipeline here in the U. S.  is completely empty, anything Brazilian coming into the United States from an agricultural standpoint is asinine. 

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Dollar ain`t lookin` so good

I agree, but isn`t that symptom that confirms how tight the situation is?   Sure a big US crop will provide the endusers with a piece of driftwood, but if it doesn`t materialize, how long can they tread water?  China`s appetite doesn`t appear to be waning outside of games to jigger prices down. 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Dollar ain`t lookin` so good

is it appetite or is it a desire to get rid of US dollars for something more stable..... similar to the argentine example ?

k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Dollar ain`t lookin` so good

The  $ky  has  been  falling  since  August  15 - 1971 ,  so  50  years  later ,  at  what  set  price  do  we  go  back  on  the  gold  standard  , 1971  at  $35.oo  or  today's  price  at $1795.oo  to  stabilize  the  $$$$$  - - -

It would be a task at hand to purchase a $450,000.oo  harvester ,   with $35.oo  Gold -  -  - 

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Dollar ain`t lookin` so good

Meh.

I doubt the rest of the world is going to let the US drive the DX to 70 like GWB did.

Currencies are long trending affairs, and they trend and grind until they don't.

But I wouldn't short it with my enemy's money given the ultra extremes in short positioning. And particularly with long rates breaking out to the upside today. Jerry talked softer than Fat Billy's butt but the market ain't buyin' it.

When all ya got is a hammer from Online Von Mises U and ZeroHedge, everything looks like a nail.

illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: Dollar ain`t lookin` so good

1.9 trillion to help alleviate the previous administrations missteps, just a drop of water in the bucket of the debt racked up in the last four years.  Just to think probably could have been avoided all together with just a bit of competence.  Really its the least of our worries with what it’s going to take to get back in track again.  Price corrections in the grains was inevitable with the rallies we’ve been seeing.  The gold standard topic if the 70’s is another issue all together.  Biggest scam in history. Kill the currency buy it all up then regulated back to valuation what a mess that was.  History does have a way of repeating itself, some just never learn.

timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Dollar ain`t lookin` so good

Do you guys even know what you are trying to say? 

Way the past the point of no return for returning to the gold standard, not possible, not enough gold on the planet to ever consider it, unless you get real and set the value of gold at about $24,000 an ounce, which is pretty close to real value at this point.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Dollar ain`t lookin` so good

The Dollar shook off it`s early downward flirt like Taylor Swift and grains, oil and the Dow to a certain extend paid a price overnight.  But like temperatures going below zero in Texas during "global warming", a trend isn`t observable as of yet.  "cleanest shirt in the dirty clothes hamper" does have it`s perks in a global satanic one world economy  Smiley Happy

6% GDP "growth" is expected as Covid shots are given, expect gloating as sawed off low hurdles are cleared.  I ask what is the difference if we go on the gold standard and the price is $24,000/oz or if fiat currency results in gold trading at $24,000?   Smiley Happy 

 I do know that sometimes (getting common) we feel the need to governmentally overspend whether it`s a revenge war against nations that housed individuals who flew planes into buildings or battling ($$$) a politically overblown "pandemic" ..there are times Uncle Sam must keep his Master Card inserted until the screen says "approved, you may remove your card", or so the majority of *elected officials tell us. 

I wonder out loud if we really want to (none of us do) if we couldn`t go on a gold standard?  We couldn`t be passing $$Trillion$$$ in relief packages and playing war games 10,000 miles away...aw, who am I kidding?  Smiley Happy   When`s that CFAP 2.1 getting thawed out?

It`s gonna work til it don`t

United States Gross Federal Debt to GDP

Now we`re at 130% Debt to GDP the charts can`t keep up

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