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Senior Advisor

Dollar strenghtening

and it probably will for a while as I think the risk-off episode is just getting started- both public health and political turmoil are going to weigh too heavily.

Felt hard in the hugely overbought precious metals and probably will be in some of the international commodities before it is over.

I don't see it running away to the upside any time soon but it will be a headwind for commodities.

Could all turn really, really bad in Nov-Dec-Jan if the Fall 'rona surge that many experts expect takes hold and we're in the gravest constitutional crisis since the Civil War. I'd say both are more likely than not. The odds of both really bad and simultaneous maybe less than 50%? Who knows?

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Senior Advisor

Re: Dollar strenghtening

Although on both matters I've consistently been too optimistic.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Dollar strenghtening

The market has been comfortable with the last 3.5 years and much of the last 10 years "to be fair".    The Dow will be on pins & needles until the polling takes uncertainty off the table.  Debates and post debate polls will tell a better story, the cliche "markets hate uncertainty" is still in tact.   6 months from now if you knew Kamala Harris would be president would you buy buy buy or sell sell sell? 

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Senior Advisor

Re:Well, based on the fact that ....

Well, based on the fact that countries led by a female head of government have done significantly better against the coronavirus I guess you'd have to feel better about it than the alternative we have now.

And considering the fact that something that was "just a little sniffle" is now the third leading cause of death and will be the leading cause of death by April, I guess I'll go with Kamala.

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Senior Advisor

Re: If there was any doubt before, it shows pretty clearly .....

It there was any doubt before, the market shows pretty clearly that it was being entirely propped by coronavirus stimulus spending.  At the first sign of trouble, it collapses back on itself.  It just confirms everyone's suspicion that the economy is in way more trouble than they want to admit.

  As for a new surge in the fall & winter, you can count on it.  Judging from what I've seen locally, from colleges,  public schools, and trump rallies, some people don't have enough discipline to keep it in check.

  Trump's failure to show leadership on this is worse than his initial failures last spring. 

  It's funny, people claim they want the economy to recover but they won't do the simple things like wear a mask that would make it happen.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: If there was any doubt before, it shows pretty clearly .....

Corona headlines will be gone by Christmas.  Need a leader to address this country's big problem.  Money (debt)

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Honored Advisor

Re: If there was any doubt before, it shows pretty clearly .....

If by a "new leader" you mean "someone that will tax the wealthy" ...I`m sorry as I can be, but there is no Santa Claus.  The math was done about $10 Trillion ago and at that time if you taxed everyone that made over $250,000 at a 100% rate (impossible, but if you could do it) you`d only have enough revenue to run the government 141 days.

Generally someone that promises cost shifting to the "wealthy" also has big promises for spending that windfall, paying off debt is down on the list, if it`s on the list at all. 

As far as countries with a leader with two X chromosomes handling the Corona pandemic better, that may be true, however that doesn`t mean "Heels up" would do a better just just because of the extra X chromosome.  

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