1. Frost was a low key event, but we did have three of them thus far
2. Late season water and heat stress did not favors to anything
3. CZ fell thru downtrend line in mid July and pierced back above it in mid August. 445 is a bottom. Will it hold, maybe but as of now we made a higher low so it might have turned the corner
4. Average crop is 146 @ 85.5M harvested is 12.4B. Trade has not factored in a sub 13 crop
5. Every single bean yield i have heard goes like this, "better than expected but still well below average". Trade doesn't realize we are dealing with a 2.8B soya crop. This will get interesting
6. Demand is going strong and anticipate ethanol to grind wide open well into 2014, feed use up, exports will tick higher as SA can not fill the gap
7. Going to be another fun acres battle
Way i see it, hope we tank CZ in the month of October as we are already into insurance with corn, might as well puff that check up.
All our corn will be tucked into the bins for a long winters nap, anticipate our basis will get us 6 plus by next year, couple that with some appreciation in covered revenue bushels will make a nice net.
Soya will also be tucked away. While it doesn't appear we will be into insurance there, they are nothing special. Probably similar to 2011 and we had some rain in August, got lucky
Its harvest time, we might see some bullish numbers in the October report, but at the end of the day, its still harvest and that weighs on things
Remember 2010, took till 2011 for things to really shake and bake
Remember 2011, again a late bake that wasn't realized till later
Don't care how bullish someone is, waiting till harvest to market grain that you have to sell to pay bills is risky.
Guess i should count myself lucky i don't have to worry about that because of bins and being ahead on bills
Steve, I realistically can believe the field by field yield reports that have been printed. These are cold, hard facts reported by those who have harvested and weighed their crop................. and not some wild USDA predictions. I still, however am having a hard time believing the total acres thing from the USDA. You are correct, I am in denial over that. Maybe those acre numbers are correct........maybe they are not.