Doug

[Threadkiller]

Do the math, Steve. If most everyone's "better than expected", is still below their APH, how does that possibly bump up the overall yield nationwide? Quick answer: it doesn't.

[IllinoisSteve]

Well for starters not everyone is going to be below their APH.  In fact a very large number of producers will be above their APH.  I for one can tell you that it looks like I will be 30 to 40 bushel or more above my APH.  Couple that with the fact that the bad areas turn out better than expected and you get a 13 billion bushel crop.  Simple math really.

[mnvtfarm]

My aph is 169. Until the "flash" drought occured I was 99% sure my corn would average around 140 and that is what I was expecting. Anything over 140 will be better than expected, for me. Reaching my aph will not happen this year, too many blank spots, 0 is still 0 and hard to make up.

Made a trip down hwy.15 from my place to the Pioneer plant in Algona IA last week. I made the comment that I was surprised at how on the way down there were so many bean acres and how immature they appeared to be. I was told those were mostly all PP acres and the beans growing were the cover crop...that's how many seed companies got rid of their treated beans that were going to be returned this year. Interesting.

IMHO the high yields for the year are being reported now. As harvest moves North the "better than expected" yields will still be below aph because most producers are not expecting aph yields.        

[Threadkiller]

Of course not everyone will be below their APH. But from the reports u have read on agtalk, the majority explain that they are. More reports below APH than above, = below average yields. Really, really simple math.

[Slim123]

I guess we will all see first hand when we get DONE  with harvest what yields are. Until then we are guessing.

[cyclonegrain]

There will be alot of corn acres in the SW quarter of Minnesota and eastern South Dakota that will exceed their APH.  Gonna be some that will push their best ever yields.  We will exceed 13 billion.  Since 1986 there have been 7 years where the good/excellent crop ratings have declined 6% or more during the month of August.  In only one year did the USDA lower their yield estimate from September to October (2002 by 2.2 bushels) and in the other 6 years they increased the yield in the October report.  Look for trend line yield to increase in the October report??  IF we realize a 13 billion or better crop we are looking at the largest world stocks since 2001? 

[IllinoisSteve]

Well unfortunately Threadkiller, farmers in general are less than honest about the potential of their crops and sometimes even actual yield. They tend to talk down a crop to cover up what is really out there or in hopes of talking the market up to make up for marketing mistakes. These boards are the worst. I know there are some really bad crops out there but even they will be better than everyone thinks. When that happens you end up with more corn than everyone except possibly the USDA thinks. The math is not in your favor.

[cyclonegrain]

It would seem many have tried to market this years crop the way they wish they would have marketed last years crop.  The trade doesn't put any stock in this site or any like it.  Guess we will just have to blame it on the USDA??!! 

[IllinoisSteve]

Yeah when all else fails blame the USDA!

[Threadkiller]

Not talking a position- just talking simple agronomy. Late planted, many areas with little to no rain in July and August. Cherry picking a garden spot doesn't hold much weight. If everyone would've had the weather eastern Sd/ sw Minnesota we'd be well over 15 billion.