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Senior Advisor

Doug

Sorry for delay, getting things ready to start in on some corn

Quick thoughts

1. Frost was a low key event, but we did have three of them thus far
2. Late season water and heat stress did not favors to anything
3. CZ fell thru downtrend line in mid July and pierced back above it in mid August. 445 is a bottom. Will it hold, maybe but as of now we made a higher low so it might have turned the corner
4. Average crop is 146 @ 85.5M harvested is 12.4B. Trade has not factored in a sub 13 crop
5. Every single bean yield i have heard goes like this, "better than expected but still well below average". Trade doesn't realize we are dealing with a 2.8B soya crop. This will get interesting
6. Demand is going strong and anticipate ethanol to grind wide open well into 2014, feed use up, exports will tick higher as SA can not fill the gap
7. Going to be another fun acres battle

Way i see it, hope we tank CZ in the month of October as we are already into insurance with corn, might as well puff that check up.

All our corn will be tucked into the bins for a long winters nap, anticipate our basis will get us 6 plus by next year, couple that with some appreciation in covered revenue bushels will make a nice net.

Soya will also be tucked away. While it doesn't appear we will be into insurance there, they are nothing special. Probably similar to 2011 and we had some rain in August, got lucky

Its harvest time, we might see some bullish numbers in the October report, but at the end of the day, its still harvest and that weighs on things

Remember 2010, took till 2011 for things to really shake and bake

Remember 2011, again a late bake that wasn't realized till later

Don't care how bullish someone is, waiting till harvest to market grain that you have to sell to pay bills is risky.

Guess i should count myself lucky i don't have to worry about that because of bins and being ahead on bills
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27 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Doug

does anyone have bean balance sheet for 2003-04, or know what end stocks were for that mktg yr?

 

thanks.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Doug

My only question would be who says we are sub 13 on the corn crop?
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Honored Advisor

Re: Doug

The logical reasoning says that the corn has to make 12 billion before it can make 13 billion. Maybe it will, maybe it won't.   

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Senior Contributor

Re: Doug

Come on now Roarintiger. This crop is nowhere near 12 billion or under. It is close to 13 and quite likely over. If you haven't come to grips with that you are in denial. As much as you want this crop to be under 12 billion it just ain't gonna happen.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Doug

Steve, I realistically can believe the field by field yield reports that have been printed. These are cold, hard facts reported by those who have harvested and weighed their crop................. and not some wild USDA predictions.  I still, however am having a hard time believing the total acres thing from the USDA.   You are correct, I am in denial over that.  Maybe those acre numbers are correct........maybe they are not.

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Doug

Early reports are good so say analysts, that's fine. USDA is expected to report 10-12 % harvested, again all is good. 22% was mature last week, sure that's good too. 28% of the crop was planted before May 12th. Good that's the early stuff. 30% was planted after May 20th, I know, planting date doesn't mean a thing for some, it does for others. I would like to hear the reports on the crop that was planted from the 10th on to see what kind of crop we will have as we could have a good early start and not a great finish.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Doug

farsider,

good point and i'd like to know about the 42% planted even later???

 

maybe some of the failed ac, and below 130 yield in there.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Doug

Really? Care to make one of your steak supper bets Tigger? I will give you up to 13b, anything over you buy. Crop is better than you guys think. I mean it. Prepare to eat a lot of Crow.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Doug

I kind of have to agree Wrestler. Corn crop is better than most think. What is really comical or maybe pathetic is there is a big bitchfest going on over at the NAT sight about people saying their crops are better than expected. They are crying that it just isn't fair because someone could have better than expected yields and still be under their APH. So what? If someone has an APH of 190 and they were claiming all summer their corn wouldn't make 150 and then it ends up making 170 I think that definitely qualifies as better than expected and isn't all that bullish. A few of the biggest bulls are starting to realize they are in trouble and are grasping at straws.
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