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Senior Contributor

Re: Doug

So when IllinoisSteve calls farmers "less than honest" or liars. Who is grasping for straws?

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Senior Contributor

Re: Doug

Not I. Tell me I'm wrong. Farmers always exaggerate yields to the low side. Can you honestly dispute that?
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Senior Contributor

Threadkiller

You nailed it. We are not talking a 15 billion bushel crop because there are serious issues in places. That is why we are looking at a 13 billion bushel crop. Serious issues in places plus insanely good corn in others equals about 13 billion.
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Contributor

Re: Threadkiller

Is a 13 bb crop being traded? What is the value of say a 13.2 bb crop.?
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Honored Advisor

Re: Threadkiller

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900 acres NW KS appraised at 0 to 4 bu an acre. Guarantee there are 10's of thousands more of this out there under 5 bu/acre. That will never see a combine. Kind of doesn't add to the pile very fast.

 

Oh that's right doesn't count if it is not combined.

 

Only counts in the big planted acreage x trend line yield #.

 

The small areas that are over APH are insignificant compared  to the under APH acres. But continue to live the dream...

 

The girls at South Podunk Industries send their thanks for your order of the rose colored glasses.

 

The newest model that you can dial in your APH before looking at your yield monitor and always lets you see a bigger # than that,  are flying off the assembly line right into shipping.

 

We are having difficulty in the "Banker" model though. Seems they are resisting wearing them when looking at growers financal statements.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Threadkiller

"Farmers always exaggerate yields to the low side."     Not the ones at my coffee shop.  It's usually just the opposite.   Smiley Wink

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Senior Contributor

Re: Threadkiller

Well Hobby first of all I am really sorry about your crop loss this year.  It sucks.  No doubt about it.  Unfortunately your personal loss and that of those around you has clouded your judgment more than a little.  If you really believe that the areas that are above APH are small and insignificant you are really in for a shock in about two months.  There is a lot of areas that are bad, quite a few that are just so so, and a lot that are off the charts good.  It doesn't add up to a 14 or 15 billion bushel crop but it adds up to a 13 billion bushel crop.  I'm sorry you don't want to believe that this is the case but it will very likely play out this way.  Judging by your comments and some of the others I'm guessing you guys are already preparing your statements about conspiracy and USDA incompetence for later this winter when the final crop number gets printed?  You've all pretty much said you aren't going to believe any number that is printed if it doesn't mesh with your preconceived ideas on crop size.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Threadkiller

Hobby, I was able to harvest 150 acres of my Central Kansas dryland corn, but it wasn't anything to write home about.  Made a little money, but if I would have seeded those same acres to milo, I'd be hands down better off.  I'm starting to realize why my area is milo country and not corn country.