cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Dow Theory

hadn't made a lot of note of the fact that we had a classic non-confirmation with the DJIA making a new high but the DJTA failing to confirm.

Even before the transports got crushed by the coronavius there was persistent weakness in trucking and rail shipment data. That was mostly ignored when the market was in "who me worry" mode but generally indicates that somethin' ain't quite right here. 

Many of us have never witnessed a true bear stock market- we've lived in the era of bubble + crash + rinse, wash repeat. But as wise old Richard Russell- who lived through several- used to say- in a bear market, all news is bad. Every day.

The Administration tried a "phone call with Xi" type lie- there is no stimulus plan ready to go. Doesn't appear to have worked.

0 Kudos
5 Replies
Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: Dow Theory

ytd my trucking enterprise is down 14%. Lower fuel costs will help some, never look a gift horse in the mouth as they say....

Double digit increases in insurance costs,  lowering freight rates, and lowering freight volumes are the real culprits.  Luckily I have always diversified what and how we haul to the point that while one segment may be down another will be up and another will at least just be stagnant. So, this year food products and building supplies will have to carry the load. Looks like I'll have two stagnants and a slight up if it continues. Tougher year to be sure. Saving grace on all accounts is a small debt load. 

Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Dow Theory

Numerous  logistic  contacts  of  mine,  report  downward  rate  pressures,  on  most  freight  offerings ,  besides  the  normal  January -  winter   slump  -  -  -    

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Dow Theory

Just a few weeks before the peak we had Union Pacific with terrible numbers.

But they announced layoffs and the market rewarded it with new highs for the stock.

Crazy stuff doesn't seem crazy when you're afraid of missing out on that pot at the end of the rainbow.

BTW, government actively ramping markets is a destructive act.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Dow Theory

Yesterday made it seem unlikely but we're setting up for a third gap down tomorrow.

Which ought to finish it for a while?

If the thing ultimately makes a 5 wave move down (beyond the 3 I described) that would set a more ominous tone.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: Dow Theory

glad i tidied up my portfolio about a month ago.  Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.