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Down 20%

Article says we here in Indiana are down 20% on corn crop.Anybody got any info on the other I states and of course Rhode Island?

http://eaglecountryonline.com/local-article/flooding-dry-weather-causes-drop-in-indiana-corn-crop-ha...

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4 Replies
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Down 20%

Lets look at another way...... because I do not know what production was in indiana in 2014.... or should I say usda's estimite of production....  Which is the only data we don't have....

 

If I read it right production was down in Indiana 236.1 million bushels this year...    and in Illinois  down 418 million bushels

 

Explain to me how september stocks go up 284 million bushels in the same state..????? please???

 

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: Down 20%

sw - Sorry - but I'm thinking out loud again - But my guess is it's not really preduction for this year - but a flood of last years corn that was stored till the last moment - It was worth to me to wait - The ethanol plants were biding one heck of a basis till new stuff came in - but as I said - just a guess Smiley Happy

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Down 20%

If carry stocks were that large, I don't think they would need a big basis to get grain bought....??  

 

But look back to 2014 was the Illinois crop that large?  As I remember the "realized, annointed, etc" crop in that area Was recorded as a huge crop.  And this looks like they discovered another 600 million bushels in Illinois that was never accounted for..

 

Are they mixing missleading data..... and probably unrelated data, I just haven't figured this comparison out..............

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: Down 20%

sw - We are a hour and a half from the ethanol plant - they were paying .33 to 35 + basis , end of July - Aug. - part of Sept.  that was 25 cents better that local , I have a truck on the road - remember this was just us - but in that time frame - J. hauled right around 65 to 70 thousand up to them - that was just us , and there were other trucks hauling too . We finished the last job the day before we started cutting beans - really we had to wait a day for J to finish .  There are 4 ethanol plants real close to each other and I guess that is why they were hunting for corn so hard in my area . They are working hard to lock in corn for next year as they are in the area that got hit very hard this past season .

 

As far as IL . Man I don't know , to me , the ones I have talked to and visited - for some reason - they just don't have the on farm storage like we do around here - I would think it would be hard to surpise us with an extra 800 when it's already been dilivered .

 

btw - We have what they call the beast of the east here = Bunge bean plant - run 200,000 threw it a day ,  I often have to wonder where the record beans are - we also haul some for them - we pull beans out of Ohio for them , North a hour and a half - corn up and beans back - yet they have had trains come in from MN , ND. to Morristown !  you'll like this one - they asked me the other day what it would take to buy my beans - I told them raise basis 3 bucks and we will talk -  Well we haven't talked - yet Smiley Happy

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