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Honored Advisor

Drop or next stop 5 bucks?

Looks like the last 5  1/2 years corn in the $4.50s,  drops.  Unless we have the fundamentals of 2014.  Ladies and gents, place yer bets!

https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZC&p=m1

17 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Drop or next stop 5 bucks?

What was the old local tavern game mentioned, named Liars Poker , was that it - ? 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Drop or next stop 5 bucks?

K-289, there`s one 5, one 6, four 4`s and "gulp" three 3`s, a pair of 2`s and one 1.  Doubt me?  Smiley Very Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Drop or next stop 5 bucks?

Didn't drop today..... corn at $4.54  up  5.5 cents  While beans ended down 7 after doing chin ups all night.

Wheat took a break and dropped  a few cents.

The thing I been watching is cattle they went up again today feeders and fats.  Those know it all paid puppets always seem to say grains are getting too high because feeder cattle prices are going down..... haven't seen that yet.. at least not over the holidays.  Beef demand seems strong.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Drop or next stop 5 bucks?

I took some cookies today...you just gotta.  Maybe it`s onward & upward to $5  then I`ll sell my "Vega$ bushels" and sweep the bins and concentrate on `21.  First time in long time, inputs prepaid, bills paid and a minor tax problem, but I at least have the money to write the feds and Governor Kim some checks.   2020 was not at all a bad year.   A guy picks manure with the chickens for 5 years and then Boom! the stars finally line up this year. 

I don`t know, but in the case of corn i`m afraid beans and wheat been pulling it up.  The thing is, as the calendar changes to the new year and rents are due and "John Deere payments" and some riding the rally wave and delaying taxes could bring on some selling.  Maybe not, I just don`t want to be between a rock and hard place forced to sell in a declining market.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Drop or next stop 5 bucks?

Im doing the same..... for 5 years we been begging for this opportunity..... where is it going ?   No Guess but Iam selling into it ----lightening the load as we go up. I am fine with it.  I am sure a little profitability is all we need. 

This move might be a supply problem of real style.  But may be the beginning of our inflationary future by hiding our debt in printed paper pyramids.   Either way it is marketing time..... the inventory needs to move while the buyer needs it.

That is what marketing is ....... not the trading or bartering endlessly that brings on the foolishness of never producing, never having risked a future or a past --ending with blaming your favorite politician for what you wish didn't happen...... it is getting and accepting a price for your inventory(production) --- From  $4.55 marketing better be happening. IMO

The future is an unknown......... especially since in a country printing itself to death.

Corn could be $45.00 per bushel by next summer and we could be economically in trouble... who knows.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Drop or next stop 5 bucks?

SW, it`s hard to get a real pulse on the economy, where the food is grown things are good, new pickups, new machinery, $13,000 land.  But you click on the tv news and food lines and a government check of $600 or $2,000 is the difference in life and death in the rest of the country.

If the rest of the country is that hard up, is there really going to be a problem of "too much money chasing too few goods"?   Living expenses of rent, car payment, fancy phone,  200 channels on tv, ect those are all monthly bills the average person has BEFORE they have "mad money" to blow on made in China or Mexico durable goods.  Inflation is kind of like gout a richman`s disease, a nice problem to have if you can afford it  Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Drop or next stop 5 bucks?

BA

 

Inflation is a poor man's problem way worse than the rich man.

Their income is always behind the curve. 

Honored Advisor

Re: Drop or next stop 5 bucks?

I`m either farmin` or truckin` but today #1 Daughter had to have wisdom teeth out, so I had time to make the rounds to Fleet Farm and TSC.   Okay Fleet Farm and every Fleet Farm I`ve been to is out of guns and ammo, they have 12% off everything but nothing to buy.  I suppose a salesman bought most of their hitch pins to give as Christmas gifts.  Pretty dead, even before Christmas not busy, 10 registers and 2 clerks checking out. 

I know the internet is tough on the brick & mortar, but it`s sad, if didn`t know better you`d think it was going out of business sales.  I used to buy a new Carhartt coverall every year or 2, now they have only the jackets and bibs and the cheap $90 Walls brand or Field & Forest.   I thought this year I`ll celebrate and get a Carhartt nobody has `em, didn`t check Runnings.  But found new ones on line $200 and they don`t have real sizes anymore, just the S, M, L, XL  tall regular short.   I liked trying them on before buying because I don`t know if a hoodie can fit under a XL or if a regular the pant leg will soak up the mud.  

So I found a Carhartt unworn with tags, it was faded in the Sun on one side (no big whoop) someone`s dad passed away before wearing.  They wanted $60 I offered and got it for $50 1/4th of new price.

But Shopko, K-Mart, Sears, Pennys all went broke.  Fleet Farm is where you go to buy clothes.  When I took the off farm job the banker and I were talking he said "yeah farmers spend too much time at Menards looking for bargains and think that`s part of their job" and I was one of those and I did a little of it today, but i don`t have time to contribute to "inflation" anymore.  But the line of new John Deere combines as I left town, I bet I`d find inflation there   Smiley Happy  but then I`d have to buy Def.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Drop or next stop 5 bucks?

BA your right....

Think about when direct TV and that other one (so they looked like competitors) got popular?  Every house needed a small dish to scoop snow off of.  And they started the upscale pricing scam.... with 100+ channels and about 12 channels of content.  Half the shows just advertise the other shows....... it got so bad that government subsidized insurance companies and non profits had to start advertising to fill space.----We still don't have enough good content for 12 decent channels of entertainment.  And If someone starts running John Carson reruns or Green acres, or the Flinstones they all get blown out of the water.

What I am asking is----without sports,  which might have just left town, how many years ago did you just stop.... look at the "background noise box" and say this stuff is not worth what we pay for it.   It is the start of that mental process you just had over the economy, 

Which reasonable thinking person wants to go back to the sears catelog as your only source of Carharts.... yet we are leaving a year when Amazon and its Chinese cheap labor camps became the new source of everything and Sears fell to its demise..... from the same idea.

It is upon us........ our new best friend the electronic device is all we will have........until the plug is pulled.    my computer updated and my accounting program stopped working.  (the process of forcing me to buy an update.  like the transmission on a tractor when the satalite connection stops.  The inhuman economy.  Where we get what we need to survive without human interaction.  

I am a little different...... I really don't enjoy farming............ I remember how elated my dad was when he could rent enough ground to farm without struggling to survive.... always cringe when we drove by a farm with a yard full of chickens ,  Dad was asked years ago what was the best thing that happened to agriculture in his short lifetime, his answer was "becoming a business rather than an existence"  Living among Quakers enough you know most folks who ask questions already have an answer they want to hear you say.  If your patient enough,,,,, they will lecture you about it.    BA, the hardest part of all this may be having to watch our wonderful communities go back to the survival mode that most of our families have known too well in the middle of the last century.  Well enough to immigrate half way around the world to get away from it.

What I like is the people,  figuring out how to make them smile.... how to sell Carharts and and have a friend come back for extra socks.  Our people skills have got to hell.  And I am afraid we're going to find that was worth more than the new coveralls.  You just don't find better people than in small rural communities.  600 people in a small town have close to 600 friends.....   80% of the US lives in metro areas where they have "acquaintences" and carry their best friend in their shirt pocket.  AS you said BA,  we are in a fix when we are avoiding each other and the result won't be pretty.

My middle grandson is vocal and fun....... Ask him where he got those boots and he will pipe right up.... "UPS"  Our heritage will be folklore soon.

 

 

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