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Veteran Advisor

Drought and Capacity - Opinion Poll

Lights out- Peak Technology?

 

- Sun p.m. -Since Mike's gmo vid posted - more clarity on the tech. variable part of THE equation, perhaps?

 

When is the last historical 3 yr timeframe (since current last 3) the U.S. has experienced 3 consecutive yrs of lower yields in Corn?...and how is this related to MT's concept of Peak Corn and agronomy now? (how much more yield/ac can technology add?)

 

.......and what is your opinion of how this will effect US competition in global commerce in Corn for the next 3-5 years.

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8 Replies
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Frequent Contributor

Re: Drought and Capacity - Opinion Poll

Mark Welch from Texas A&M actually had that data in a presentation he gave last week at AgConnect.  I didn't write the dates down, but there were two periods of three years of year over year yield decreases in the late 1800's.  So the last three years were unprecedented in the modern corn production period of trendline yield marching higher (about 1950 on).  Odds favor a higher yield this year vs. last, the magnitude is really the question.  As far as how much yield better management and technology can add, it can continue to add yield, but of course it will add more bushel yield on the best ground then on the marginal ground where all the acre production growth is occurring (i.e. even drought tolerant corn won't produce unless it has the threshold amount of water needed to successfully reproduce).

 

If we don't produce excess corn over the next few years, importers will permanently shift their focus to other exporters as preferred suppliers.  Mike McGinnis had data on Brazil and Ukrainian corn exports that he shared during his market updates at AgConnect which show how the importers are already looking more to other sources for corn.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Drought and Capacity - Opinion Poll

I commented on this very subject not long ago on this very site.  Drought tolerant corn doesn't mean drought resistant corn.  Brian Hefty made the same comment at Ag Connect when he was speaking in the CIH booth.

 

This poor ole dry dirt subpar wheat farmer can figure that out.

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Advisor

Re: Nothing wrong with this picture, looks like record yields to me. LMAO! Down limit in morn.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Nothing wrong with this picture, looks like record yields to me. LMAO! Down limit in morn.

You lost me Faust, what in that picture looks promising?

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Senior Advisor

Re: Nothing wrong with this picture, looks like record yields to me. LMAO! Down limit in morn.

Shaggy -- It was  -- i say -- I say -- a joke son - a joke -- lol

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Drought and Capacity - Opinion Poll

From the "must see video", one might surmise Monsanto is trying their best to engineer a species which only needs enough moisture from fog  to thrive...LMAO!!!!!! 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Nothing wrong with this picture, looks like record yields to me. LMAO! Down limit in morn.

We have seen yield drop for last 3 years on corn and it could again  next year too! The corn acreage has gone up nearly 30% in past 5 years. The ground producing corn today is not very best corn ground as it was prior to that we added more marginal corn producing area's and with the new Genetics corn is now being grown also new areas that have never produced corn before of any number. The average corn yield is bound to go down and then you add in drought in heart of corn belt its even going to go down farther. I think if you added in new areas producing corn and added them to history of traditional corn belt you would see that yield number for this many acres

would be much less.The idea that you can use trend line yield based on very best producing corn ground to new expanded acreage

is fools wish of getting the desired total production we need to recover inventories. The larger the area producing corn greater is the chance that something will effect production and you will end up with more blended average. I think this is the new normal for corn because demand has grown where more of the marginal and new area's of corn growing is needed to meet supply. I also think demand is going to continue to grow so were going need all that we can produce.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Drought and Capacity - Opinion Poll

We have had non Corn farmers from the western desert asking about about growing com... they already bought the seed.

I got a call about that very subject from a farmer out near the Colorado border yesterday. No subsoil moisture but good insurance #'s , I think he will be planting a bunch of acres to corn and a few to beans with the idea that
1) he needs income
2) it might rain
Do you know the odds of a successful harvest?
Trend line yield?
Slim and none...

Slim just left town.
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