cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Drought not done ???

In the news this morning.

 

2013 worst drought year on record in California.  Reservoirs at 30% capacity.

 

May not be true for the corn belt, but for the southern high plains, our weather follows theirs.  

 

We had a nice fall, but ended the year at 4-6 inches below average even though it is the best year in last 3.

 

 

0 Kudos
22 Replies

Re: Drought not done ???

http://www.qtweather.com/showImage.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FSoilmst_Monito...

 

Yes, I generally check this map periodically.

 

Of course moisture deficits can go away- and even turn to floods- in a week of spring. So nothing actionable there in my view for quite some time.

 

Just for kicks I spent some time looking at SOI and other data from 1934-36. I was just reminded of the fact that 1934 was a serious drought, 1936 was terrible and the winter 0r '35-'36 was bitterly cold.

 

Can't claim that I came upon anything that enlightened but there might be some value in being reminded that major droughts can happen in a two year interval.

 

Probably will buy a few cheap calls in late winter, or when market action suggests it, to prode cover for previous new crop sales if things should get extreme Then let'er happen, cap'n. Whatever will be will be, you just do the best with what you think without getting too crazy.

 

PS. I think this may be more rural legend than fact but I recall a weather guru saying that when a California drought finally breaks, then look out. If I turn on the TV news and see houses in Malibu sliding off hillsides then my antenna will probably be a bit more attuned.

 

 

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: Drought not done ???

Here in central IA we ended the year 6" below normal.  In 2013 we recorded 20" the first 6 months and just 10" the last half.  Most tiles are not running.  I'm concerned, but all that could change very fast come Spring.

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Drought not done ???

the large amplitude weather swings are not over, for sure...............so, I spect some roving drought for 2-3 more yrs.

 

comparison it with 2012  - same week in Jan...http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DataArchive.aspx 

0 Kudos
Advisor

Re: Drought not done ???

Man. I have never seen a red gob like the one in California for a long time now. Natives have the water rights in that area though right? I guess Murcia will have to do some Indian giving in the near future
0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Drought not done ???

ResizedImage_1383931397780.jpg

Here is the picture I put up a couple of months ago. The color is off due to flash going off and reflection from my orange jacket down in the tile trench. Notice the bean roots at that depth.

 

That crack next to the tape measure went deeper than is is showing in the picture. The ground was so dry and hard the tileing machine had to go at about half throtle to keep it from just jumping and bouncing. The soil came out looking like 2 1/2 in industrial duty black corn flakes.

 

The picture was taken in the area the crumber ran, Notice the hard, slick, almost shinny side wall above and below. Should have gotten a spade and taken a few more picts.  

 

This is river bottom here in southern Iowa.

 

Picture was taken November 8, '13

 

We are drier now than then.

 

Spring should rehydrate this in this part of the country.

 

Cracks that had closed on top have now reopened.

 

Not sure the hill ground can fully recover/recharge before spring is over down here in the clay based soils of southern Iowa.

 

Seems as though we are always 10 days away from a drought here. August was not kind to us last year.

0 Kudos
Veteran Contributor

Re: Drought not done ???

0 Kudos
Veteran Contributor

Re: Drought not done ???

Looks like most of IA., Neb., best corn growing areas of Minn., Missouri, and half of Illinois

are rather dry to darn dry yet.

I know here in NW IA. we haven't had much for moisture since spring of 2013.

Subsoils are dry and no tile running.  Looks like we are going into this spring

just as dry if not drier than last year.

Plenty early yet to be real concerned. Things can change with rains this spring

BUT no subsoil moisture is of concern!!

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Drought not done ???

Have you seen any similar historical maps for this time of year?  Just curious. I checked the website and could only see historical maps back to 2000, but I might not have looked in the right place, and didn't really see anything similar for similar areas this time of year in the past, at least since 2000.

0 Kudos
Senior Advisor

Re: Drought not done ???

I believe the West had similar issues in 1977. That was the closest the Palouse ever was to a crop failure, though winter wheat was still 35 bu or so. Spring crops were worse.

0 Kudos