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Senior Advisor

Re: Maps Jan & July 1977

Because people are getting paid to make us believe $2-$4 corn is just around the corner.

 

On the other hand, market demand was still pretty good in that $5-$7 range.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Maps Jan & July 1977

I have been afraid all along that weather had little to do with the price.  Price might have had more to do with dollar devaluation and inflation than anything else.(the near economic collapse created government actions that worked in grain producers favor.)  That and China's need to get rid of US dollars for a more valuable commodity.

 

the 2-4 dollar corn might happen anyway.   We are struggling with two economic realities.  There may be more "residents" in the US than ever before, but there are fewer players in the economy than ever before.------ fewer and larger businesses and money managers doing most of the commerce.  And in ag. it is the same, fewer suppliers, consolidation in mass, chemicals and seed, equipment, fertilizer sources, livestock buyers and processers etc etc.

Second -------- By voting in legislation with self worshipfull, lofty goals, that few read and legislation that doesn't take effect for years, we have escorted ourselves into an economy that is more regulated and controled by an elected government than any in history.  Creating an environment where a new business has little chance to survive and the best an entripenour can hope for is to sell his idea, or services, to the big survivors.

 

That said, ---------------- my question is ------- should any farmer expect "normal" economic reactions to effect the economy the way we were taught.  For instance---- if 60% of farmers refuse to buy fertilizer,, does that mean fertilizer prices will fall?  Or less grain will be produced?  The way we expect ? ----- When 15% of the farmers are producing 80% of the production is the economy going to respond the same as it did 50 years back.  Apply the thought to other things ------ how many choices do we really have for grain sales, equipment, fuel, etc etc etc.

 

The US economy is being swallowed up by the world economy.  And I am not sure the world works on the economic model we are accustom to.  

 

A peso-mistic saturday for sure.   But we may just have to fall back on the "Plumber's Rule" theory.  We do a job others don't want to do so we will have job security.  We just may not work for ourselves.

 

I am so greatful for the last 4 years of prices and good water so I didn't have to look for an accounting job at this age.  But mostly I am so glad to have a few years when it felt like what I raised was worth something to somebody!!!!

 

We could easily be facing poor production, poor prices, and taxes no one can stand.  We have lost the reliably strong economy we grew up in.  Agriculture was important to this country years ago,  that's what I will tell my grandson.  Because 70 years ago---one lifetime---- people were starving because of poor political decisions worldwide.

----------------------------------------

 

Shaggy------- for three years we have had extreme weather events, setting records of drought and heat greater than the 30's or the 50's in Ks.  I got a little wheat for once, I would like to think it is turning around.--------- But comparing events to events ----------- where does very little snow in the Sierra's stand.  That is almost a historic impossibility.  If that doesn't change quickly, it signals we may not have seen the worst of drought yet.  What they get we get eventually.  That state runs on reservoir and river water.

 

 

 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Maps Jan & July 1977

sw,

good, comprehensive, thoughtful post! thanks.....I believe I read the CA drought is worst in 150 years........................remember when we were digging into the paleo-climate stuff from the drought.gov site?

 

pretty sobering to scale out in time and see the greater lengths and depths of climatology. i also think that we are in a (beyond a century) type of weather-climate-earth pattern, currently...................

 

I'm no economic guru, but i still believe the US ag producer is in one of the best positions -- income-wise, as well...you mentioned the security...i like the plumber analogy....makes sense to this citified descendant of farmers past -- similar to an HVAC business - a well run business and it's employees can make a nice bank in those industries.

 

.........imo looking out a year -3- 5 ....i'll just put it this way...........don't think the volatility has left the building........even with fewer choices, a few big players on production side (80-20), natural and economic law still apply....... not to sound trite here.........................the rivers ALWAYS find the sea.........................................

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