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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Dry areas begin getting rain around 8/20

if it comes will definitely fill out beans some and put some TW on corn for all but the worst afflicted fields.

Although probably just an annoyance for producers who are expecting to be around the crop insurance threshold.

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6 Replies
bruce MN
Advisor

Re: Dry areas begin getting rain around 8/20

Ha.

Recalls from back in the gravity box era. In an especially good yield year there would always be some guy you’d run into in town or at Church or somewhere who would be complaining about having to haul so darned many loads 

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Dry areas begin getting rain around 8/20

What areas are you describing at dry and just at crop ins thresholds? Just wondering...

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erikjohnson61y
Veteran Advisor

Re: Dry areas begin getting rain around 8/20

Um, if I'm right at the insurance threshold, extra yield still goes straight into my pocket... And if I'm raising feed or have pasture, I have more if it rains. How the heck could that ever be viewed as an "annoyance?"

I scouted my fields last weekend. I figure the kernels are there for a 140 yield, but poor TW will probably bring me down to 102-ish.  My APH is 165, so I'm "right at the insurance threshold" of 75%. 

RAIN BABY RAIN!!!!

timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Dry areas begin getting rain around 8/20

Rain baby rain.... I'm on board but it is getting pretty late in the game to be of much help. 

You made my point though, the driest areas in the midwest over the last 5 weeks are not only in MN/SD/NE. Plenty of areas in IA, IL, IN, OH, KY that are really to dry for max bean yields at this time of August. jmo of course. I attached a screenshot of the % of average precip for the last 14 days. 

And, I would add, the last 7 days we were supposed to be cool and wet on the 8/14 day. Only 4 days over 90 with zero rainfall. Just comical how bad these forecasts are fulfilling.

aaLast 14 day rainfall.jpg
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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Dry areas begin getting rain around 8/20

All summer the dry areas have had a wet period forecast for five to seven days away.

This is the middle of August, kind of close to sundown. 

I saw corn in north central Kansas 10 days ago golden to the top, approximately 50% of the field.

The rest of it was struggling. The beans were also smaller than they should have been and also struggling.

Too late for corn in that area if it had rained this morning (it didn't)

Drought damaged beans at this time of year are also going to be a disappointing recreational combine driving chore. The daylight determinate part of their makeup tells them to just give it up and finish.

The hrs of sunshine are markedly less by the day now and shortly the heat units will also fall away.

Getting  very close to just put a X on the 2021 calandar and hope for a better 2022 for those with weather issues.

It appears south central and most of sw Iowa is gonna have a very good crop.

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rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: Dry areas begin getting rain around 8/20

the first two posters understand crop insurance thresholds about as well as I understand conjugating Spanish verbs. Like Erik says, if you are at the crop insurance threshold, any additional yield goes into your net income. 

Lots of acres gave it up this weekend and browned up. I have several pivots running right now trying to get enough water on to get a respectable yield. If you don't have 1200 gpm wells and nozzles, it is hard to irrigate enough without any help from Mother Nature. And all of this comes with extra costs, too. The guys irrigating from the rivers must have had to give that up as the rivers are not flowing right now. 

Just think if 2021 is just setting the stage for the rest of the decade?

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