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07-17-2017 08:09 AM
So, last I heard farmers owned 40% of the carryover, trucks have been running since then. But, say a farmer was "capturing the carry" and had corn in his bin that he contracted to deliver in July, August and September, now would USDA figure that as "in farmer`s hands"? I don`t know, but would think that until he delivers and fills the contracts, it would be still considered "farmer owned".
What I`m getting at is the gurus say that "the market can`t rally until farmers sell....and they have to make room for fall, so we know it`s coming to town". Well, maybe it`s already mostly spoken for.
07-17-2017 08:46 AM - edited 07-17-2017 08:49 AM
Doubtful BA, just call your local Cargill (I did), they have basically zero old crop contracts on the books. Farmers selling the carry this late in the year just doesn't happen much in the real world, at least locally.
Far more interesting to me is who and where it is held. ALOT of those bushels are in ND/SD/NE/MN/ and nw IA. Areas that might not have to ship them to make much room for new crop. There really aren't many bushels out east in farmer bins, at least not much more than the usage will be until harvest. So, probably more fake news to help support the opinion/desire of the writer.
07-17-2017 09:09 AM
Thanks Time, but let`s say these contracts were made a year ago, now I`m not up on all this stuff but when we had the rally in June of last year, there were probably farmers making sales to E-plants and feedlots a year or 14 months into the future. Perhaps it wasn`t "anymore than usual" but no, in the last 6 months or so, there wasn`t any opportunities unless you were some sort of mega-bear.
But speaking of "calling the local coop", I wonder how much room they are making for the new crop? They want their elevator full, so if they aren`t moving out the old aggressively, they must not anticipate a huge crop. Word on the street is Landus at Rake is still fuller than Hogan`s goat...I don`t know what they are waiting for.
07-17-2017 10:03 AM
95% of the corn that I am selling and hauling this summer was forward contracted over a year ago, for $4 per bushel and I am not making any current sales (2017 summer and fall) for the current offered prices. It is still a $4 corn and $10 soybean cost structure out there and I am not going to work for nothing. My soybeans MAY go to market if the offers go back to $10 plus but I am not going to sell any $3 corn unless it smelling and looking at me.
07-17-2017 10:26 AM
Anyone can take a guess, but NOBODY knows how much corn is held by the farmers in their bins. Even the farmers themselves (me included) don't know exactly how much is in their bins. These people keeping track of this only know two numbers. The amount of corn that the USDA guessed that we harvested and the amount of corn that has crossed the scales. The difference is what they think is still out there....somewhere. While it is obvious that there still is corn on the farm, how much is still there is strictly a guess.
07-17-2017 10:52 AM - edited 07-17-2017 10:55 AM
I agree with the above BA
It is the slight of hand used in the spin....
Farmers do not own it if it is under contract even if the bin is full...... but the gift to buyers is once they contract for grain and delay delivery (and they always do for at least 45-60 days if not months) then they are allowed to present the inventory as available grain at the location where stored(farmer owned). But ownership has already changed hands...... the only thing delayed is the payment...... which also works to their benefit as well as the free storage.
Farmers are not paying that much storage...with normal elevator storage running near 60 cents a year.
I would guess that to be true for most of the elevator or ground piles in the country.. and everywhere except the dry northwest has moved those ground piles out. Except Moscow, Ks and their working on it........ But I am pretty sure those are owned by the end user and have had a home for a long time.
07-17-2017 11:46 AM
I don't think there is all that much left in bins in my area. Most guys I know sold basis contracts or hauled all theirs in on FREE DP till August, when they'll have to sell or start paying storage again. I still have 100% of my 2016 corn crop in the bin unsold. Ours is a little different situation because I look for our crop to be near zeroed out on '17 so we won't need any storage this fall. If the dry weather and dicamba damage continues to pile up, probably won't need any soybean storage either other than the 5K sold for harvest delivery, and I hope I have 5K bushels off of 890 acres....and I'm not joking.
07-17-2017 05:08 PM
The pace of farmer selling in Iowa is going to slow down this week over all but the 20% of the NE part of the state that got some of those "ring of fire" rains last week....
That NW crop district grows 375-400+ myn bushel most years......SC/SE districts combined grow about 250-275 myn.....and those are the crop districts most effected right now with lack of moisture....
I see corn basis has improved 5-8 cents at my old employer in Eddyville......a 25 cent haircut on futures from the peak and no moisture will do that......but rest assured there are plenty of commercials "waiting for a pop" so replacement is likely not more than another 5-8 cents away.....
when futures hit their peak back in June of 2016, the carries out to J/J of 17 had got pretty skinny......the better choice would have been hedging in the Z 16 and rolling on out over time unless you were in IN/OH where basis was much stronger and offered some interesting opportunities that WCB farmers could only dream about this past year.....
well, we are finally down to crunch time........we have the ability to start losing, or preserving corn at the rate of 75-100+ myn bushels per day over next couple of weeks.....
would expect to see a firm open tonight based on the loss in G/E in Iowa and some others....
hang on fellas.....about to get interesting