Honored Advisor
Posts: 15,210
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Dumb question on farmer owned carryover

Time, no offense intended to Jim, but I think "he`s talking his book" and a touch of backyarditis, I missed freshman orientation the other day, but Iowa City must be a garden spot. 


But with the USDA saying such and such on carryover, isn`t it basically if it`s over 2 billion carryover traders can beat the prices like a rented mule with impunity.  Below 2 billion and they get nervous as a cat walking into a room full of rocking chairs.  Close to 1 billion and they sweat bullets, because bulled up farmers just sit on their corn waiting for $12.


But, a 1 billion bushel carryover can be fudged to 2 billion, so long as most traders believe the great Oz and no one looks behind the curtain.   They can make their own reality, to a point.  If they ever "make a mistake" they may or may not admit it a year after the fact like,  "oh yeah remember when we said there was a 2 billion bushel carryover last year?  Well actually it was 800 million and corn should`ve went to $7...sorry our bad." .   I guess my point is, you can be right and still lose, those that run the brakes on the roulette wheel decide if it comes up red or black.

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,069
Registered: ‎05-20-2010

Re: Dumb question on farmer owned carryover

Talking his position, or maybe he doesn't really know what it is :-) , 98 degrees hurts yield regardless of moisture. With moisture stress it destroys yields, but even with it, yield is dinged pretty good.


Don't you get a sense that the bears are getting nervous? Great weather supposedly, horrific s&d stories from NASS, and scary price action, and yet, here we sit only only 30 cents away from annual highs in the beans and 20 in corn. Me thinks the bull is getting a little pissed and about ready to make a statement :-)    Of course, a cool shower will calm the bull, but will it be widespread and enough to keep em down much longer?   :-)

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,496
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: Dumb question on farmer owned carryover

Here we are a month later, and still the USDA numbers are still predictions.   Even their final numbers will be predictions.   


These USDA predictions offend me and should be protested until they stop.    Smiley Wink