cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Early Yield Reports

What is most interesting to me is the media framing of the data that is being demonstrated (Wow...look at those yields!). Just read the emotion and intent behind Mike's words, wonder and amazement. At what, average yields. The best yields are merely average. That is not something that warrants wonder and amazement. Frankly it is amazingly bad considering such a cool July.

 

ill steve even adds to the delusion by claiming that "the yield is too good to publish"...rubbish indeed. We will have a few fields over 200 that only made 110 last year. Big whoop...our average will be around 168 which is almost equal to last year. We'll have bean fields go under 40 that have a average over 64. The average will be 40 or so. Point being that one field of the best vairiety in the best soils planted in the best conditions that recieved rain...well it should be 270 not 210 or even 175.

 

Just further highlights the importance of one of my Core Concepts...ignore the news...period. Question the fact and agenda of the news you hear. Mine as well. In a media frenzied world, those who ignore the emotional news cycle will prosper.

425Cat
Advisor

Re: Early Yield Reports

Ah yes don't forget the tremendous yields coming out of the south . And now new headlines "Argentina expects bumper crop" . As the planters begin to roll. I think the media wishes corn would go to 2 bucks so they could pat themselves on the back and say "We told ya so".

0 Kudos
BTS4-210
Contributor

Re: Early Yield Reports

no smoke and mirrors the delta made a crop this year corn is out  I-40 south another 7-10 days alot further north will be done. its rice and bean thrashing time.  that said  if  southren Mo., AR, MS, LA avg 225bu across every acre would it push corn down no, it doesn't matter what we make down here its what the three I's does in respect to corn and beans.  now rice acres being  much lower and looks 50bu off  thats a diffrent story

0 Kudos
IllinoisSteve
Senior Contributor

Re: Early Yield Reports

Look wiseguy, I said I would not publish what I think MY corn would make because cry babies like you won't believe it anyway.  There will be a lot of really good corn and a lot of bad corn.  It just remains to be seen where it all washes out.  It has been my experience that when a poor crop is anticipated farmers tend to underestimate yield potential.  Not saying everyone that is talking about stressed and burned up crops is full of baloney.  Just saying in SOME instances it might not be as bad as some think.  Is that clear enough for you?

0 Kudos
Ron (Cen. IL.)
Frequent Contributor

Re: Early Yield Reports

Steve, not everyone has been as been as fortunate as you  (to receive 4 inches of rain in the last 3 weeks).

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Early Yield Reports

Mike spins for controversy,  it lights fuses, like the kid who starts the spats on the playground then sits back and watches the world turn.  Web site management.

 

But when I try "our" core concept, and tone out spin to sell or advance careers, I will finally call myself on the phone to see if I am deaf.  Data is hard to collect and present without bias, you actually have to see it from several perspectives to measure its worth  ---- Spin is just easier.  "An ever lovin' tsunami of corn flowing up the Mississippi so hard and fast that the barges are saving fuel delivering and are being trucked back south for lack of room in the river system." -----------------These days that kind of stuff is considered cute---------- and I stop reading after "ever lovin"".

Farm "information" went out the window along with those "ever lovin' bulky shorts"---local joke ----  and was laid to rest when the farm population moved to town.

 

Spin ratings might make a good thread, but Mike can't hold a candle to a local elevator manager in our area.  In fact of the voices I hear and read giving market information, It seems to me that the bigger voices I read(I get fcstones elevator communications and some others because we are in that business) the less spin presented.  Bias is another issue, whether it is chart tech based or comes from the voices most listened too, bias is a reality for us all.

But market information without spin is almost nonexistant.  Especially since usda has decided that it is easier and cheaper to present predictions and declare them fact than do the real work of compiling accurate information.  Besides there are so few producers of commodities compared to consumers of corn syrup.  Which group needs the benefit of a "good" usda report??  And which group gets to define what a good usda report is??

 

 

0 Kudos
IllinoisSteve
Senior Contributor

Ron I understand what you are saying

But what good is a sight like this if you don't get both sides of the story? I've kept quiet about my crops until lately so as not to hurt anyone's feelings, but I feel like it is getting late enough in the season that we all need to start putting our cards on the table. Would it make all of you feel better if I said my crops suck and we are for sure headed back to $6? I think that is a bit disingenuous don't you? I know very well how fortunate I am and feel badly for others who are less fortunate. Next year will probably be my turn to have poor crops. That doesn't mean I'm going to come on here and blow smoke up your skirt about how bad things are when they are not. For the record, I am only about 65 bu sold on a crop that will be well north of 200. I listened too much to the crop killing crowd the past few months when I should have been selling corn. No one to blame but myself!
0 Kudos
Ron (Cen. IL.)
Frequent Contributor

Re: Ron I understand what you are saying

 

 

You still may be OK.  The bears always want you to think the game is over.  (Did you see hedgefund farmer's  thread where he stated there was "3 minutes left"  ?)

 

I think it's disingenuous to say that you think the crops are going to be better than expected (based on your own crops) and not mention the rain that you have received.  I'm going to guess (because I don't have it written down) that "here" we would have  to go back to sometime in early June to total 4 inches of rain.

0 Kudos
hardnox604008
Advisor

Re: Early Yield Reports

Mike isn't spinning anything- this is the same stuff that coming through all the wires and brokerage houses.

 

It means something but is what it is, some very early yield reports that have some very limited bearing on the final outcome.

 

If you're sure of you're beliefs then stick to your guns.

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Early Yield Reports

I did a search for Wow ............. and Mike is the only one I find.  But we can take away his creative ability and just say he had to have copied it off the wire.  

 

Sorry Mike, I gave you too much credit.

 

The report was fine in detail, haveing what I am sure is both sides of the picture.  Decent yields and poor yields, Maybe one excellent yield.  The opening statement just sounded like hype. A 200-220 yield range is not eye popping.  Just a good decent yield that may be excellent this year.  We harvested a few of those in 2012 and at least three large 240+ fields in a terrible year for some.  I kept them too myself.  So what.  Last year and again this year,  we are going to average in some very poor yields and lots of PP --0's.  Lots of failed acres and insurance claims.  None of that averages very well.

 

But your right "Wow............." is a pretty ignorant statement to have been the product of Mikes typing.  So your saying it is what came over prnewswire or all the wires and brokerage houses---------- The paid newswire services set up to meet the full desclosure of information laws for the companies in the business ----- I think that is the source we are refering to.  It doesn't get credibility because it is widely distributed, that is why we have it --------- To spread the manure evenly.

0 Kudos