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Senior Advisor

Early spring

March will be a tad wet

April-June dry

Corn planting will likely be 1-3 weeks ahead of normal and certainly ahead of last spring

June-August look to be quite warm and dry. Spotty parts of eastern cornbelt will have some timely rains. Upper plains including W Ia and Mn along with Dakotas could bake

Spent the last week getting another new farm I bought cleaned up. Frost is basically out of the ground. Based on current forecast we may be running ammonia in the next 7-10 days

If you hadn't heard yet. 2014 was the warmest on record. Globally speaking

SA crop is not going to hit its massive target and NA crop is overstated

A few minor hiccups in NA growing season and stocks will get very right again. Our stocks to use ratios are too tight to get complacent

Still bearish beans and bullish corn. See what this market does

Have no clue on wheat. All I know is what I did get planted looks like hell and there isn't much planted around.
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21 Replies
Advisor

Re: Early spring

if the usa wheat happens to freeze out again and br stays dry....it's a global come to Jesus meet to find something to eat most likely.  MO

 

 

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Advisor

Re: Early spring

Corn will tank with that forecast due to "ideal" planting weather and much larger planted acreage. Next, the flash droughts will come and boost yields even further. Test weights will be huge due to a late fall and no threat of frost. Every stalk will have two or three ears when the tours are conducted. Harvested acreage will be a record and prices will be under LDP rates. Insurance payments will once again be at the forefront of everyone's mind. This is what my crystal ball predicts. Sound familiar? Nothing more than high stakes poker.
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Senior Advisor

Re: Early spring

MT - I'm going to hold you to this - parts of eastern cornbelt will have some timely rains   Smiley Happy

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Senior Contributor

Re: Early spring

Up here in "The Nort"...I'm looking for a normal Spring. Will be heading out with corn planter around May 25....so will have 1 or 2 good planting days before the cutoff date for Fed. Crop Ins for **bleep**'s shows up on June 1. Then will switch over too beans and should have 3 planting days before the date for reduced Fed. C. Ins shows up !!!!

 

 Will try too make hay for the horse people but with rain every third day in June.....hay will end up goingto the state for mulch hay along Gov Walkers road projects!!!!

 

  Just another year in the life of  a parttime farmer up in the " Fringe Area ".

 

MT...I'm thinking I like your picture of the 2015 season better!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 John

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Senior Advisor

Re: Early spring

Dang it JCC  - That sounds like the ole Half glass is empty line to me !  Maybe I shound give you a call today and get you in the half full crowd - lol

 

Have a good one John

 

Go Pac .

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Honored Advisor

Re: Early spring

Bkadds,

 

Wouldn't it be great to read a certain farm publication step out of the programmed message??  

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Early spring

April and May should be warm and relatively dry. That's kinda why I posted. This market has many dynamics right now

Corn doesn't necessarily have to bid acres even though we know if the growing season is average at best, it will wish it would have. Soya have more cushion and will be the go too crop for those tight on operating capital or farming junk ground.

First step will be what crop insurance sets at

An early spring might help balance this bean thing

Interesting acres situation we have to deal with too. 2012 and 2014 combine corn and beans was 174. Hard to imagine this 177 number some are using especially when FSA and NASS are not reconciled yet

Guess what I am saying is, hedge wisely. We could likely see a whip saw. Bouncing up into early spring. Tank it as planters roll. Bring it back in late summer if forecast holds

We have had 2 bigger crops in a cut input environment going into 2015. Add in some stress and stocks to use could get interesting
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Advisor

Re: Early spring

Use the spring rally to price grain. It sounds like an average year and average year top in the spring.
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Advisor

Re: Early spring

SW--absolutely. But...we are just growers and what do we know. We are becoming more "fringe" all the time with declining water. Have lost several big families to parts east of here due to water issues. Makes sense to get out while there is still some value to the ground.
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