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Honored Advisor

Re: Economy Observations

You don't have to in anyway explain if you have it good Jen. The problem is, going forward there are less opportunities, a plan for success even 10 years ago won't work today. We see it with election results, those with no hope are prone to dabble in socialism as they feel they have nothing to lose.

Dollar General stores are replacing the JC Penney stores and that is not a good sign for things to come. I worry about future generations, those of us with some gray hair have found a chair for when the music stops, but I'm afraid many will be left standing. Trouble is too many standing can take your chair.
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Senior Advisor

Re: Economy Observations

Treasuries are the safe bet if you're parking money in a secure place, if you think the equities are in a bubble due to the Fed QE and are reacting to the possibility of a slide into devaluation. The return is better than a bank account, tax free and will be honored always. If there comes a time when they aren't then it's a safe bet every other possible situation is a LOT worse.

 

Treasuries are for those who aren't speculating and security of their savings is a very high priority. That would fit the Japanese right now. And here too.

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Advisor

Re: Economy Observations

There was a guy who had quite a run here back at the start of the boom, I'll give him his due.

 

But anyway, when I started talking about the urgency of the mortage securitization situation- probably early, I can't recall precisely- he thought that was hilarious because he'd just been to Mall of America and folks were shoppin' 'til they dropped. Hope he didn't sell some of that $7.50 corn for $3. (Disclaimer, I didn't sell any $7.50 corn, also didn't sell any under $5.)

 

But I don't think the next swan is of US origin, probably Chinese or possibly European varieties. I was, believe it or not, going to post this morning, before the modest rout of world markets emanating from China, but got busy.

 

Anyway, I wouldn't get too excited because folks are buying RV's, or houses, or stuff at Old Navy. The biggest thing to remember from the 2008 crisis is that spending can stop overnight (and the borrowings from previous spending don't go away).

 

I don't imagine that a foreign centered financial panic will have the same impact on the US economy as a the termination of a US centered global financial crime wave did but it would still be pretty profound.

 

And BTW, looking at the FAS tables, looks like their take is that Chiha's grain stocks are pretty robust, which is probably partly a function of the fact that they've bought boatloads of a lot of strategic commodities the last few years with all the trade surplus they've acquired. Probably a bigger deal in iron ore, cotton etc. and some things like that but still a problem for us. That falls right in our wheelhouse.

 

 

 

 

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Advisor

Re: Economy Observations

It has been widely speculated for half a decade that the next down turn will be coming from China. Their speculation Otho drove the last commodity bull.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Economy Observations

What is "Otho"?
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