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Honored Advisor

Ehoff, from the other site

 

ehoff
 Posted 8/14/2019 05:46 (#7673108 - in reply to #7673090) 
Subject: RE: Hard to believe any thing USDA reports anymore.
 


Central Missouri
This is all part of the grain commodity cycle. We will be stuck in this cycle for another 15-20 years imo. I have been wondering if the next 15 years would be more like the 1950’s and 60’s or the 70’s and 80’s. I’m starting to lean toward the 50’s. An era where the world ramped production after ww2 and demand couldn’t keep up. 

Our current rift with China is reminiscent of our rift with the ussr in the late 70’s, prices got really cheap and were only rescued by the weather in 1980 and 83. With the ability of South America to produce and add acres I think this price cycle will be more like the 50’s and 60’s but only time will tell. 

If we continue to focus our energy on the Usda reports and or the presidents p9licies with China we will be wasting the mental energy needed to maximize our individual businesses in this environment. 

On another note, there are two sides to the profit equasion income and expenses. Half of the income equasion is production. Our business along with 50 others are spending the next two days with the corn world champion and the soybean world champion as part of a next level group. Two days in the field learning how to better produce high yields at low cost per bushel.
 
 
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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Ehoff, from the other site

Eddie is one of the best.

Of course, that group pretty much becomes the cause of the over-production don't they Smiley Wink

Veteran Advisor

Re: Ehoff, from the other site

LOW   COST   PER   BUSHEL   -  unbelievable  -   comes   to  mind  -    -   -

150   bushel   corn  harvested  with  a  $50, 000.  combine  3  decades  ago,   was  the  end  of  that  story  -   -  -   

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Honored Advisor

Re: Ehoff, from the other site

289   that is where my mind went also.

 

the 1950's -60's compared to present -----that is a death defying stretch.

50's   1-- half the world was rebuilding and couldn't produce enough food to eat after 40+years of war/political destruction.---Massive demand.  ---- And limited ability to compete

2-- Huge manufacturing ability in the west needing something to produce.   W/ cheap labor force   W/ stockpiles of war surplus.  Equipment costs were held down while production of farm equipment ramped up fast.  The country with the most capable crop of workers coming home from war was in North America.....

3---  Every countries idea of enough meant surplus...... not 30 days but a year if possible.  At whatever price.....

4--- The US resources had hardly been touched..... of all the irrigation projects in the US today -- not much of what we know today had been developed..... we were ripe to explode with productivity.   commercial fertilizer, hybrid(gmo) seed, herbicide chemistry, etc etc  didn't exist yet.  Basic equipment was extremely crude...  we had all the advantage and the world needed us.

Today     1--  You understand the difference.........Today we are past our peak unless you can ignore reality and believe usda....we have handed profitability over to the rich......... Today we are back to an early 1900's fight over which political format can get power.   We have elites all over the world with new tools to control the masses, and untold wealth held in the hands of a few.  What our future is most likely to see is another age of destruction and death.  And in history agriculture doesn't fair too well in those times.  I can't see much hope for seeing another 50's -60's  --------

One should find ways to be positive without being psychotic idiots.  That kind of prosperity (the kind that created the baby boomer foolishness, the kind that makes 20 year olds think their smart)  is rare in history and if our happiness is dependent on it we are in trouble.

We should be careful what we write and read......... social media is not only manipulated .....it has no wisdom requirements so remember I am just another unproductive moment in time.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Ehoff, from the other site

BA ---- no criticism intended.....

The only thing that made me want to participate at this site in 2010 was the testing of each other that went on here at the time.  It was easy to see that participants here were either well self educated and in the business of production (half) or (the other half) in the business of agriculture with something wise to bring to the table.  Then occasionally the new guy like me came along and exhibited some humility or was asked to ---- but either way was welcomed and respected.  Until becoming uncomfortable enough to leave.   Add the imposed politics of the 2016 elections and a lot of us have felt that way from time to time.  Anyway that entry from the "other site" is a good reminder of what we had here and I could never see at the "other sites".

Thanks

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Honored Advisor

Re: Ehoff, from the other site

Hey SW, history doesn`t repeat, but it rhymes. In the 50s and 60s around here,  I`ve heard it was good times on the farm, yet many left the land and moved to town.   As I understand corn was $1 plus or minus and good farm land $400 to buy or $30 to rent...well, corn is $3.50 now and land $8,000 to buy or $200 to rent.  Probably 80/bpa  yield in the 60s and 200 bpa today. 

 I think farmers moving off the land and those remaining had a 4020 and a 6 row planter and you`d be the Bigshot in the neighborhood.  It wasn`t uncommon for a farmer to say "noooo way do i want to rent anymore land, after chores at 10 in the morning, I`m about worn out!".  Contrast that with today with every farmer willing to take on an additional 200 acres even if they lost money doing it and they had to finance on their Visa card. 

I think the boom bust cycles of grain rhyme with past years.  It used to be hogs had a 5 year cycle and cattle a 10 year cycle of boom & bust, but now it`s good one year and 3 bad years to "pay for it".    What Ehoff is saying is in the 50s and 60s  you had grain in a narrow range where those with a sharp pencil survived and some with "old money" thrived, but most threw in the towel.  And that`s probably where we`re going to remain in the doldrums for a decade.  Charlie Brown thinks he`s going to get to kick the football and Lucy pulls it away at the last moment.   Those that capitalize on the exuberance of Charlie Brown up until he`s ready to kick and then "pull the trigger on a sale!" before Lucy or the USDA pulls away the football may do better than breakeven.

In the 80s grain prices were pretty good, it`s just the interest rates were the millstone around farmer`s necks.  

"The other site" has kind of become the Apple or Walmart of the farm social media chat.  Some were tired of popup ads, some got their feelings hurt because they were bearish or bullish and wrong on this site.  So, they moved and started a new life over there.   It seems over there you have to give your real name and location or those replying froth at the mouth and throw furniture around.   But is seems that transparency encourages self-policing, if someone gets too cocky a neighbor comes in and says "I know this guy...he doesn`t even farm!"   Smiley Happy

Veteran Advisor

Re: Ehoff, from the other site

SW  -  Lets  say  Holcomb  gets  up  and  running  in  60  days  -  what  will  be  the  conversation  be  on  the  wholesale  front  -  lower  cash  due  to  Yield  Grade  5'ves   abundance  - ? Smiley LOL

Liberal  could  have  things  their  way  for  the  moment  -  maybe - ?       

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Ehoff, from the other site

And  in  the  hoop-la,  the  dynamics  of   individualism  got  rolled  over  &  under ,  while  the  land  grants  sold  out  their  conscious privilege , for  that  private  pledge  of  funding  grants  - ?  -  maybe ? 

Whats   the  saying  ,  Careful  for  what  you  wish  for  -  -  -  

Veteran Advisor

Re: Ehoff, from the other site

Or  ,  I  don't  want  all   the  ground ,  just  what  joins  me  -   -   -

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Advisor

Re: Ehoff, from the other site

Many of us have moved to the other site because SF's page is not very user friendly.  The page was top notch from 2004-2010 yet the administrators chose to change the format.  I have discussed in huge detail with ehoff in past posts The cycles at work in the grain market.  What Ehoff hasn't hit on was the depression lows we still haven't cycled down to that has occurred ever 30-35 years.  This is the huge reason I didn't fall for all the 5-6 dollar corn talk prevalent this past year.  Look at the framework of the rally and map out the scenario most likely.  It isn't rocket science  but it is a payrate above most farmers.

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