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Ehoff, from the other site
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Re: Ehoff, from the other site
Eddie is one of the best.
Of course, that group pretty much becomes the cause of the over-production don't they
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Re: Ehoff, from the other site
LOW COST PER BUSHEL - unbelievable - comes to mind - - -
150 bushel corn harvested with a $50, 000. combine 3 decades ago, was the end of that story - - -
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Re: Ehoff, from the other site
289 that is where my mind went also.
the 1950's -60's compared to present -----that is a death defying stretch.
50's 1-- half the world was rebuilding and couldn't produce enough food to eat after 40+years of war/political destruction.---Massive demand. ---- And limited ability to compete
2-- Huge manufacturing ability in the west needing something to produce. W/ cheap labor force W/ stockpiles of war surplus. Equipment costs were held down while production of farm equipment ramped up fast. The country with the most capable crop of workers coming home from war was in North America.....
3--- Every countries idea of enough meant surplus...... not 30 days but a year if possible. At whatever price.....
4--- The US resources had hardly been touched..... of all the irrigation projects in the US today -- not much of what we know today had been developed..... we were ripe to explode with productivity. commercial fertilizer, hybrid(gmo) seed, herbicide chemistry, etc etc didn't exist yet. Basic equipment was extremely crude... we had all the advantage and the world needed us.
Today 1-- You understand the difference.........Today we are past our peak unless you can ignore reality and believe usda....we have handed profitability over to the rich......... Today we are back to an early 1900's fight over which political format can get power. We have elites all over the world with new tools to control the masses, and untold wealth held in the hands of a few. What our future is most likely to see is another age of destruction and death. And in history agriculture doesn't fair too well in those times. I can't see much hope for seeing another 50's -60's --------
One should find ways to be positive without being psychotic idiots. That kind of prosperity (the kind that created the baby boomer foolishness, the kind that makes 20 year olds think their smart) is rare in history and if our happiness is dependent on it we are in trouble.
We should be careful what we write and read......... social media is not only manipulated .....it has no wisdom requirements so remember I am just another unproductive moment in time.
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Re: Ehoff, from the other site
BA ---- no criticism intended.....
The only thing that made me want to participate at this site in 2010 was the testing of each other that went on here at the time. It was easy to see that participants here were either well self educated and in the business of production (half) or (the other half) in the business of agriculture with something wise to bring to the table. Then occasionally the new guy like me came along and exhibited some humility or was asked to ---- but either way was welcomed and respected. Until becoming uncomfortable enough to leave. Add the imposed politics of the 2016 elections and a lot of us have felt that way from time to time. Anyway that entry from the "other site" is a good reminder of what we had here and I could never see at the "other sites".
Thanks
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Re: Ehoff, from the other site
Hey SW, history doesn`t repeat, but it rhymes. In the 50s and 60s around here, I`ve heard it was good times on the farm, yet many left the land and moved to town. As I understand corn was $1 plus or minus and good farm land $400 to buy or $30 to rent...well, corn is $3.50 now and land $8,000 to buy or $200 to rent. Probably 80/bpa yield in the 60s and 200 bpa today.
I think farmers moving off the land and those remaining had a 4020 and a 6 row planter and you`d be the Bigshot in the neighborhood. It wasn`t uncommon for a farmer to say "noooo way do i want to rent anymore land, after chores at 10 in the morning, I`m about worn out!". Contrast that with today with every farmer willing to take on an additional 200 acres even if they lost money doing it and they had to finance on their Visa card.
I think the boom bust cycles of grain rhyme with past years. It used to be hogs had a 5 year cycle and cattle a 10 year cycle of boom & bust, but now it`s good one year and 3 bad years to "pay for it". What Ehoff is saying is in the 50s and 60s you had grain in a narrow range where those with a sharp pencil survived and some with "old money" thrived, but most threw in the towel. And that`s probably where we`re going to remain in the doldrums for a decade. Charlie Brown thinks he`s going to get to kick the football and Lucy pulls it away at the last moment. Those that capitalize on the exuberance of Charlie Brown up until he`s ready to kick and then "pull the trigger on a sale!" before Lucy or the USDA pulls away the football may do better than breakeven.
In the 80s grain prices were pretty good, it`s just the interest rates were the millstone around farmer`s necks.
"The other site" has kind of become the Apple or Walmart of the farm social media chat. Some were tired of popup ads, some got their feelings hurt because they were bearish or bullish and wrong on this site. So, they moved and started a new life over there. It seems over there you have to give your real name and location or those replying froth at the mouth and throw furniture around. But is seems that transparency encourages self-policing, if someone gets too cocky a neighbor comes in and says "I know this guy...he doesn`t even farm!"
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Re: Ehoff, from the other site
SW - Lets say Holcomb gets up and running in 60 days - what will be the conversation be on the wholesale front - lower cash due to Yield Grade 5'ves abundance - ?
Liberal could have things their way for the moment - maybe - ?
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Re: Ehoff, from the other site
And in the hoop-la, the dynamics of individualism got rolled over & under , while the land grants sold out their conscious privilege , for that private pledge of funding grants - ? - maybe ?
Whats the saying , Careful for what you wish for - - -
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Re: Ehoff, from the other site
Or , I don't want all the ground , just what joins me - - -
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Re: Ehoff, from the other site
Many of us have moved to the other site because SF's page is not very user friendly. The page was top notch from 2004-2010 yet the administrators chose to change the format. I have discussed in huge detail with ehoff in past posts The cycles at work in the grain market. What Ehoff hasn't hit on was the depression lows we still haven't cycled down to that has occurred ever 30-35 years. This is the huge reason I didn't fall for all the 5-6 dollar corn talk prevalent this past year. Look at the framework of the rally and map out the scenario most likely. It isn't rocket science but it is a payrate above most farmers.