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elcheapo
Senior Advisor

El Cheapo is taking bets

Got to get a faster chip set computer....mine cant keep up with the price changes.....

So this spring....can you get inputs ?

Then second....at what price ?

Here is what we are looking at:

Nh3. $1390/ton 

Urea. $ 772/ton 

11-52. $ 976/ton 

10-34. $890/ton 

So what is your "guess" on diesel, the high and when....and your guess on fert cost ?

The real betting window will be the grains...not only geo-political...but weather...

Many are saying does not matter what levels input cost are, with high grain prices.....only thing is, you have to raise the crop !!

We are getting so dry, even the musk thistle is wilting !!!

Now....maybe ole eagle eye is reading this, and maybe he can offer a prize from SF for the most accurate guesser....maybe a year subscription to SF ????

Gentlemen (and ladys), the betting window is now open !!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: El Cheapo is taking bets

We should have about as guaranteed good year as is possible in farming, with the crop insurance revenue guarantees.  Just cross the T`s and dot the i`s on crop insurance.   Do your homework as to what level makes the most sense to insure.

This would be about the worst year to try and guess prices, because what`s going to happen in Ukraine and will other hot spots explode?  If Ukraine doesn`t amount to anything, the crop is planted ideally and good growing conditions, it`ll probably be quite a bit lower prices, but that`s a big expectation at this point.

Just a guess but I think it`s possible to see $18 beans, $8 corn off the combine and we`ll be paying $5 diesel.  And fertilizer may never be cheap again.  Cause did you know there`s only a 100 year supply of phosphorus left?  One day those buying this $20,000 land won`t be any good without adequate  P levels.  Grandson Lord Flauntleroys may see the shortage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus  

According to some researchers, Earth's commercial and affordable phosphorus reserves are expected to be depleted in 50–100 years and peak phosphorus to be reached in approximately 2030.[2][8] Others suggest that supplies will last for several hundreds of years.[9] As with the timing of peak oil, the question is not settled, and researchers in different fields regularly publish different estimates of the rock phosphate reserves.[10]

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: El Cheapo is taking bets

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k-289
Esteemed Advisor

Re: El Cheapo is taking bets

Maybe  roundup  ready  will  then  read  Phos.  unready  -  and  oats  may  regain  some  acres  -  -  -

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Why even bet?

You can book Nov22 beans at $14.80 tonight, skip the nitrogen fertilizer, racket back the P & K, or better yet, do a soil test and skip it altogether.  A $40 bag of bean seed, a dose of 2,4-D choline, crop insurance, and little diesel will cost you what $60; grow 40 bu. beans at $14 is $560-60=$500 per acre profit.

  Let somebody else worry about spending that $250 per A on fertilizer.   Even if corn is $6 per bu. and you can make an extra $100, after buying the fuel to dry the corn is it worth the extra risk of capital?

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elcheapo
Senior Advisor

Re: Why even bet?

Your close...valor pre...$45 seed some fancy 24d with a grass herb.

Your on the soil testing, you might be ok on phos level...no use to spend $1 a pound if you dont need to.

Was watching an rfdtv show they talked about $800 ac for corn.

How could one sleep ?

I would like to do some milo tho.

In my opinion, we have done better with milo than beans...

We dont have that good of soil and upland.

 

 

 

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: El Cheapo is taking bets

What a wonderful time..........

Crop size is heading down and you have played out the reasons..... 

 

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k-289
Esteemed Advisor

Re: El Cheapo is taking bets

More  worry some  concern,   western  side  of  US 281  than  phos. ,   would  be  fresh  water  -  -  -

Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: El Cheapo is taking bets

Had tax meeting yesterday.

Cpa said farmers are all over the map.

Some are rolling in money, some are in the red or very near it.

The ones in trouble are the sold too soon crowd.

 

Just got this text as was typing this post

"This is the last week to sign up for GAVILON's AVERAGE PRICE contract on corn. Give us a call to sign up today. Thanks!"

Easy way to continue a life of poverty...

 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: El Cheapo is taking bets

Well.......the elevators and other grain buyers are certainly not happy in losing their advantage over the American Farmer.     Their arrogance can no longer be tolerated.   lol