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capinegro3901115
Veteran Contributor

Elcheapo=ellowgo

Charts dont predict

Lower lows and lower highs

supply/demand=price discovery

When domestic stocks go up=bearish

When world stocks go up=bearish

US dollar goes up=bearish

No heat=no yield damage

 

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12 Replies
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Elcheapo=ellowgo

Please look at the hard red winter wheat market.

Thank you
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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: Elcheapo=ellowgo

You the man cappi. Seriously guys if you looking for a broker that looks out for your best interest call cappi.
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cyclonegrain
Veteran Contributor

Re: Elcheapo=ellowgo

Elcheapo, the world is awash in wheat.  The USDA had wheat in the latest S&D report at a record supply for the 4th time in the last 7 years.  In the past 10 years wheat supplies have increased 144 million tons.  Production growth has finally exceeded the worlds ability to expand consumption.  Wheat is trading $1.00-$1.50 above corn which means less feeding (usage) of wheat.  Thus, wheat has to get cheaper to compete with corn in the ration.  Export are 27% below last year at this time.  It would appear we are heading for the $4.00 level. 

 

P.S. Early harvested beans in SW MN running 55-62 bpa.  That is on 7 guys that I have talked to that have some out.  Not a big sampling, but it is what it is.  38% retracement  off the contract high of $13.33 is $8.18? 

 

 

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capinegro3901115
Veteran Contributor

Re: Elcheapo=ellowgo

cyclone I have tryed to bring some of those pts. up to elcheapo about wheat. But for someone who "advanced degree, and college level classes in commodities, marketing' he doesn't get it.

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Elcheapo=ellowgo

Really.

 

Got a source for that statement.   the world is awash in wheat." "In the past 10 years wheat supplies have increased 144 million tons"

 

 

world-grain-supply-07.28.131.png

 

WorldWheatStocksUsage.png

 

wheat_ending_stocks.jpg

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Elcheapo=ellowgo

Cherry picking your data and calling someone else's credentials into question ?????????

 

 

elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Elcheapo=ellowgo

(Sigh)....
Again....for the past several years HARD RED WINTER wheat production in the u.s. has
Been low. This year in TX, Okla, ks (the main hard red winter wheat production area)
The yeild averages were in the teens....the
Year before, similar story. There are places
That have had a respectable crop.

I now understand that you do not realize
There are several kinds of wheat, that have
Different milling and baking properties.
Unlike corn is corn (ex Flint, white, pop, sweet
All of which are different than field corn)
Soybeans are soybeans( other than high olic,
Edam, etc)
wheat is usually a human consumed grain
In the forms of bread, pastry, cakes, cookies and pasta.

Hard red winter is used mainly for bread

White wheat usually used for caked, cookies, and flour tortilla.

Last, the high protein northern Wheatstone used for pasta.

It is difficult to substitute one kind for another.

This has not been a great year for wheat.

Our white wheat overall was "average" some
Good, some not too good.

France, a large percentage is now feed grade

Black sea, down approximately 10% plus
There are "issues" there.

Our friends down under also having challenge s.

As for the comment that charts do not
Move markets.,.

Have you ready many posts?

There is something called technical anyls
Which is basicly a study of the charts...
Have you been listening to many on
here talk, levels of supports, resistance retraced and on and on ad nausea.

I'm happy you have done well in the market,
In the past, so have I, but in my opinion
I did not believe the crop sizes, and I wasn't
Alone.

So go ahead, call names, point fingers, laugh
There are things I see in "electronic exchange platform ", that I don't agree with.

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425Cat
Advisor

Re: Elcheapo=ellowgo

Be patient. The funds have a massive short position.
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capinegro3901115
Veteran Contributor

Re: Elcheapo=ellowgo

REPEAT when stock rise=bearish

US dollar strong=bearish

 

IGC  up the crop est. Commerzbank " the global market surplus will climb............global wheat stocks to five yr. high of 195 mil tons.

 

Today LIFFE in Paris is trading at its lowest level in 4 yrs. 

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