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Honored Advisor

Election effect?

What will be the trend of the corn and bean market by Dec. 15   ----- a month after the election?

 

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10 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Election effect?

IMO a "blue wave" would embolden the Chinese resolve and would continue until 2020 or the "25th amendment" or whatever insanity that a "blue wave" would entail.  Either way, the best shot at double digit beans again would be if China sees the American people are united and trade needs to be reciprocal.   If this job gets left half done, the Chinese will continue reaping a bargain and the current POTUS will get the blame for years to come.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Election effect?

I'm not sure that "reaping" is the right word here.....but it's close.    Smiley Wink

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Election effect?

With a projected 180+ corn yield, corn prices are equal or higher than they were last year at this time.  Explain that...   Hoping bean prices stay down through Dec. 1....I like soybean welfare and would welcome a second payment Smiley Happy Smiley Happy  you know, for patriotic duty. Smiley Happy  Bring the tariffs boys....just learn to play the game.  Think if I can get 1.70 payment and then prices rally back to 9...WINNING!!!!  Much better profit than 2017 still in the cards!

 

2018 harvest is now officially the mud bowl.   Heard some reports that  early beans 2.2, 2.4 were the best yielding...no facts to back that up. All beans here very, very good.  Will see how the long wait in the field affects yield.  Be a long time before bean combines can roll. Long term forecast stink.  Basically went a week and the corn/bean stocks didn't even dry up, little lone the ground..

central/south central Ia

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Senior Advisor

Re: Election effect?

I wouldn't get excited about your scenario. This year, dockage that might have dinged you .20 before is going to be well over a dollar this go round. That's the way the exporters will play it. Count on it.

Honored Advisor

Re: Election effect?

Historic prices say the wait from oct1 to dec  rewards patience more consistantly than any other 60 days     close to 70% of the time.

Basis seldom erodes past october. 

December is actually the top month in the last 50 years for market tops by month with 10 out of 50 years (followed by May at 9 and March at 6)

Although I will admit seasonal consistancy stopped in 2008..... 

 

Election..... of 25 election years in the last 50 over 60% ofthem saw increases in futues prices oct to dec.

 

do not ask me to compare winners------- 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Election effect?

Pal, I am sure hoping we don't start seeing the pictures of beans here like came out of Argentina when they had such a wet harvest.  I am an optimist, five inches of rain predicted for parts of Iowa this weekend and I still think it will dry up in time.....or stupid.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Election effect?

Smart people say there`s a "insurance rally" in October...or maybe it`s smart people trying to butter up those of us that listen to them.  Used to be grain prices were good in an election year, however I think more votes can be "bought" these days from low prices, as endusers and their employees out number farmers   Smiley Happy

 

Talked to a fellow yesterday that delivered old crop organic corn for $10.50/bu and was combining +250bu per acre corn presently, used manure and crop rotation.   His machinery was a lot nicer than mine, so I tend to believe him.   Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Election effect?

It is a totally abnormal prediction (rain), hopefully not made by a "hysteria" merchant looking for a better job.

 

But our butts are exposed and it could be a nasty beating.  I drove sw ks yesterday (an area with less corn than any year in the last 50, elevators have open space, but most every location is piling on the ground in anticipation of usda delivering its crop------ a lot of bushels exposed and everywhere soybean fields close to ready(lots of test cutting)

 

Double talk --- The wheat southwest needs the rain.... being needy is common out here.

 

 

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Election effect?

BA - I think you are right - if we (USA) fall into "every man for himself", then the bigger picture of what Trump is trying to achieve gets lost and the Chinese see no reason to change their ways regarding intellectual property, currency, and trade. $7.50 beans smarts, but I support the overall goal of bringing China in line with international norms of trade. And I think Trump can do it.  He is saving China for last - already having done a deal with the EU, South Korea, and updating NAFTA into USMCA.  The tariffs are hurting China too - their stock market is way down. A month after the election, just before the 10% US tariffs jump to 25%, Trump will call Xi Jinping and say "Let's make a deal!"  It will probably take a few months to negotiate, but by summer it should be in place. I am storing as much of this years' beans in the bin as I can in anticipation of that. If you don't have bins, buy Oct '19 calls to try to participate in the price jump when trade resumes.

 

Another poster mentioned that the sorter beans were doing better. I think I agree.  I planted some 2.4 RR2, and some 2.5 and 2.9 Dicamba beans.  I have harvested 80% of the 2.4's, and they were 14% moisture and about 8 bushels better than last year.  The other beans look good, but are still WAY too wet to even try combining.

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