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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Election year markets

Anyone have a chart for corn, soybeans, & wheat of just the election years?   I've heard from some oldtimers that the markets are always higher during a presidential election.  Any truth to that?  I know that 2012 and 1996 were two such years.  

 

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6 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Election year markets

In `96 there was the `hedge to arrive` debacle and in `12 some said that there was a drought, those factors may have mitigated anything that the politicians would do Smiley Happy    You often hear news stories about "congress will put off this tough vote until after the election".  That`s I think the bottomline, politcians go into limbo, they do very little which is good for us, then after the election or ahem wait until they are a "lame duck" then the screw job of the American people begins.  They get away with it because of most people`s short term memory.

farmer46
Senior Contributor

Re: Election year markets

I think the real answer is congress will spend money.  When any elected person runs again, the need to show what have you done lately for your area is important. So, money is spend from the government.  This has in the past claused,  a good times feeling in the minds of voters and improved prices.  With so many people now living off the government,  I do not think much more spending will cause improved prices. 

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NateWCMN
Frequent Contributor

Re: Election year markets

I've heard that said of the stock market many times, but not of the commodity markets.  Data I found said the stock market has been up in every presidential election year but 4 since 1928.  Two of those down years are 2000 and 2008, so there hasn't been as reliable of a correlation lately.

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: Election year markets

I have related this dozens of times but yet to find a buyer.

 

But it is a fact taht in both 2000 and 2004 USDA numbers turned surprisingly optimistic and you can honestly say that because in both cases the numbers were later revised back.

 

That would be under both an R and D administration.

 

2008, al holy $%^& was breaking loose so who cares. 2012 a drought and quite frankly I don't recall anything that rasied any eyebrows for me.

 

I suppose one of the reasons for 0 takers on the premise is that everyone knows that if USDA fudges it is against farmers.

 

But make of it what you may.

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: Election year markets

BTW, the 2000 effort began with the Jan report when virtually every single number surprised analysts on the bullish side.

 

This wojuld have been in a market without a pyulse and it did elevate things a bit.

 

So maybe there's hope although quite frankly there are a third as many real farmers now as there were then and of that tiny number I don't suppose there are more than a few dozen who are going to vote one way or the other based on taht sort of subtle massaging.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Election year markets

hardnox,  yes there are less real farmers, but more people than ever depend on the American farmer for 1) a job and 2) food.

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