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steeringwheelholder
Senior Contributor

Emotions over facts

I, along with several others have little new crop '12 priced. '11 is all gone. I believe we are near a bottom, but if we get some rain this could just keep tumbling. Fear is starting to trump hope. I can still lock in $5+ corn, and $12+ beans. Sell now, or ride it out?
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11 Replies
steeringwheelholder
Senior Contributor

Re: Emotions over facts

I have a written plan, and am fairly disciplined following it, but my plans change when the facts change.
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iowafarmer31
Visitor

Re: Emotions over facts

I am trying to decide the same thing.  My gut tells me that this crop is no where near 166 avg they are projecting and to hold on.  The problem is I don't know if the prices will reflect that until after harvest.  If we could get Eurpope settled down then I believe it would go up again given the dry weather we keep experiencing.  The problem is all the outside negative economic factors which keep coming up.  Also don't have a lot of good storage so I normally sell it all by December.  I am working on adding storage but just started farming a couple years ago.

 

I do have some locked in already in the $6.00 range and 5.00 to 5.40.

 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Emotions over facts

"This" happens every year about this time, the market tries to claim there`s a monster crop coming, to create fear.  But there have been quite a few nicks to this crop already.  Somewhat like buying a car...now the salesman has to see if the manager will accept the offer.  Of course he won`t "to replace this same model on the lot, it`ll cost us $3,000 more than this offer blah blah blah"   It`s a dance and the closer we get to fall hopefully the producers will be leading.  Wake me in August zzzzzzzzz zzzzz zzzz 

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Emotions over facts

The seasonal guys like Roy Smith say that usually we will get a weather scare before harvest.  For myself, I"m not selling anything at this level.  If we get a bump around 4 Jul, (give or take) I may sell some more, a little.  The rest of mine is probably going in the bin for sale after harvest.

The trade will drive the price down as bruatlly as they can.  Sometimes you have to out last them (if you can).   

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steeringwheelholder
Senior Contributor

Re: Emotions over facts

Yeah, I know. There is always that "what if" though. What if we get a great summer and huge crop? $3 corn? $4? I'm about 10% sold and am generally 50% by now and 75% by independence day. That's only a month away. Maybe we will repeat last fall and my highest sales were sold right off the combine.
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steeringwheelholder
Senior Contributor

Re: Emotions over facts

I'm like iowa31 above here. Fairly young and only bin storage for a few loads. Gotta do something with it.
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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Emotions over facts

Do what you usually do and sell another 25% by July.  Then you'll be half done instead of 3/4 but follwoign the same time table.  You're only off 25% of your plan then.  If July is super, sell up to 75%, if not plan to sell in the fall.  Is there any carry for the new crop/  

You can also use options, but every time I get convinced that they're good, I look at the cost.  The last months Successful Farming had an interting article in it about Allen Kluis getting a little less fired up over options.

Again, for me, I can store it and I'm sitting on it.

A plan:

1.  Take a deep breath.

2.  Put down some price and time goals (consider but don't get hung up on "what used to be"

3.  Execute

4.  Review and revise

 

 

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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Emotions over facts

Jim's plan sounds good.

#3 is the most important.

 

I have been very successfull lately at putting a bid out to my buyers and picking off the top of a rally when I am busy at something else.

If you have an amount in mind that you are comfortable with the bid is good for 'Executing'.

 

Problem is being realistic with the bid. None of my present bids are going to be hit in the near future. At the moment they do not look reasonable so I may have to adjust them as the calendar keeps moving on.

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iowafarmer31
Visitor

Re: Emotions over facts

You sound like me except I have been an hour late or a little too high on the rallys.  That is what you get for working another job full time..

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