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Veteran Contributor

Equity markets (Dow & S&P 500)

I've been looking for a correction for a long while (about a year). I think we just may be getting it. Looks an awful lot like the soy market at the first of July. My average short on the Dow futures is just over 17,000. I think we can hit 15,600. Anyone else have an opinion?

 

Kevin

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14 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Equity markets (Dow & S&P 500)

Well, only last October `13 the Dow was 14,600.  If it dropped 20% or to 13,500 that`d be a bear market and could really go down.  Bob Brinker was making fun of the bears last Sunday, that cockiness isn`t a good sign, but everytime you think "okay, this is the big one the Dow is over"...it goes roaring back to exuberant levels.

 

i don`t know a thing about charts but it doesn`t look pretty.

 

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM  

 

IMO if someone looked at the Dow`s fundamentals alone, they wouldn`t touch it...that said October is usually bearish and a mother of all "buying opportunities".  As long as there`s "green screen" and special effects in this movie, there is no reason why we won`t see `Dow 36,000`   Smiley Happy

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Advisor

Re: Equity markets (Dow & S&P 500)

Probably.

 

And in a high beta world, it doesn't help commodities any either.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Equity markets (Dow & S&P 500)

Hey BA Deere.....That is always a given when the bulls get cocky or complacent (I will have to look up Bob Brinker). Just like on this site when 85% (or more) never thought the grain markets would go down when corn was  $7.00 and beans were in the teens. I agree with you that going to last years numbers here would actually be like the first objective. I have said for a few months that a DJIA in the 16,000 to 17,000 range was like $16. to $17. soybeans. Just can't stay there. Thanks for the link to the chart, it looks different what I use on DTN but looks even more overdone. One of my trading strategies has always been to sell what the Government tries to meddle in. Q3 was a given that it was a false market.

 

Kevin

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Senior Advisor

Re: Equity markets (Dow & S&P 500)

I'm sure to rattle a few cages here, but I hope the market does take a little dip.  Wouldn't that create a nice buying oportunity?  Of course I'm nowhere close to retirement so my outlook may be different than some.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Equity markets (Dow & S&P 500)

I agree Shag - I'm also looking to add to my investments on a pull back here.  I don't see a whole sale sell off however.  I'm very comfortable with what the market is doing, I guess that says that I am positioned right at the moment.  I am thinking about adding another couple thousand shares of GE - they pay a good dividend and if the stock raises, it's an added bonus.

 

Most of the companies I am invested in now pay pretty good dividends that I roll back into more stock.  It's a nice place to be financially.

 

I reviewed my life insurance this morning.  I'm really glad that I bought the insurance while I had a chance.  With my health issues now, no one would sell me anything as far as life insurance.

 

Combines here are running full tilt.  Every farmer is out there doing beans -  and the crop is coming off really, really fast.  No one into the corn yet - I still need to look at the field next to my property to see what's going on with that.

 

Weather wise, there is a big High over most of the Midwest this morning.  Our next shots of rain happen mainly the next two Mondays.  The first one next Monday looks to get MN, IA and points East, the second the following Monday, looks to be a stopper for MN and WI.  But that's a long ways off yet.  

 

For now, it's a beautiful day here.  We should have killed off most of the mosquitoes last night as we dipped down to 27, and it looks like a great 10 days of harvest ahead of us here in MN.

 

Be safe...

 

Jen

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Equity markets (Dow & S&P 500)

It is far from the safest place to have your money right now and again over valued like $16.-$17. soybeans were in 2012. Government intervention that started in 2008-09 will not ultimately protect the stock market. The world economy is in trouble. China's housing bubble makes the one in your country look like a mouse to an elephant. Europe is on the brink of recession again. The U.S. has borrowed way too much money since the start of the Iraq invasion and sped up with the 08' banking crisis.

 

Kevin

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Equity markets (Dow & S&P 500)

S&P maybe correct to 1800 this time --- not sure its time for large dn,,,,,,,,yet.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Equity markets (Dow & S&P 500)

I would be tickled to death with that so I hope you are right Smiley Happy

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Advisor

Foam the runway

we got one coming in hot.

 

BTW, viper, if you've never played in this sandbox let me tell you something from the experience of shorting into 2000 and 2008.

 

You're dealing with the biggest bunch of arse bandits alive, so don't get cocky. The NY guys are actually 100X worse than the chitown boyz. The current outfit running things is actually the HFT guys running first through Chi in the index pits and then arbitraging the microseconds with the exchanges in NY and NJ.

 

The world's biggest butt pirates. Stealing $billions every month.

 

If you happen to be riding their coattails, good for you. But remember who owns the coats.

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