Ethanol in Perspective

[sw363535]

[sw363535]

Anybody noticing this in the news releases.     How is ethanol being spun.........

[Hobbyfarmer]

Filled up the little suv this evening @$1.58 e85

[bkadds]

SW--somehow your chart has to be bearish, right? God bless ethanol or we would be sub $2.00 corn.

[BA Deere]

Hopefully if that "Starlink" corn gets worked out of the system, China will keep lovin` them DDG`s.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Bet if you over lay that chart with all the oil in storage it'll match up pretty good. 

With more oil we'll need more E to blend with it ... right?

After all, cheaper prices mean more consumption. .. right?

[sw363535]

Bkadds I had a talk with a local banker today.  about crude price perspective and he said the same.

"We have to expect that oil will not go that low even if it has a hard time finding storage, If crude can go to 20 what keeps grain from going back to 2 or 2.50?"

-----------

But this chart tells me fuel usage is already ramped up more than reported, and if the refiners are thinking like the farmers, they may be filling up with cheap crude imports.  --------A lot of transports of fuel got priced last couple of weeks.

Corn exports are doing ok and the grind for ethanol is strong, so grain is being consumed rapidly.

And 

Does this chart tell us a little about the size of that 2012 crop????   ------- maybe a little more dramatic than usda let on.

[rayjenkins]

nice chart, but there is one thing wrong

the "scale" of the chart can present a false impression 

that 14/15 number, with the sharp increase, represents a change of  just ** 4 % **

throw up a chart showing total usage, and you get more of a "blip" instead of what was presented

Ray J

[sw363535]

Yes Ray the scale does not start at 0 and it distorts perspective if you "glance" read it.

But there is always a "choice" in reporting perspective.  Lately the lead on related stories has been something like "Ethanol hits a four week low in production, or a 4 month low, etc etc etc.......   The chart shows that there is a choice in "spin".

Who determines the choice?   Usda?  The Reporter?  Or ???

    That is my reason for putting the "thought" entry up.

[r3020]

Here's a pretty good site to get an idea of ethanol production and stocks. Actual numbers.

http://ethanolrfa.org/pages/weekly-ethanol-feed-production