Ethanol supply glut despite low production

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

So, what happens now in the ethanol sector, with reports like these? 

"U.S. weekly ethanol production falls to a five-month low, but stockpiles remain large. US EIA reports output of 892,000 barrels/day in week ended March 9, down from 906,000 the prior week. "

• Here's more 

That's according to a report out this morning. EIA's reporting 22 million barrels stockpiled, up 23% since January 1. But, output's way down. Is this affecting the corn bids from your local ethanol plant? If this continues, will you consider looking elsewhere to market your grain? 

[roarintiger1]

I have no figures to back this up...however....I'm assuming that the ethanol plants take in the vast majority of their corn in October, November, & December and ramp up production accordingly.  So, one would think that by March, production would naturally be lower.  I'm guessing that at some point, all of the ethanol will get used.

[Sou Tx]

The weekly reduction you cited amounts to approximately 1.4 mb grind for that week.
It is certainly a reduction, but..not much of one.

I am not necessarily bullish, however the spreads indicate something I am not willing to ignore.

[vrbuck]

Duh......

[teaspoon73]

  Don't worry vrbuck, the boats are being loaded as we speak. The world will not pass up cheap fuel. RBOB gas is at 3.34 and ethanol is at 2.31. Go fill up with High octane clean burning ethanol.

[Buckley_HF]

http://www.wisconsinagconnection.com/story-national.php?Id=563&yr=2012 Guess its not all "coffee cans and beer bottles to store it now." huge shipping tankers are somewhat equivalent I guess when u can't see anything positive

[roarintiger1]

Buckley, Thanks for the link.........hope that puts someone's mind at ease for a while.  He seems pretty worried about the ethanol supply.  

[vrbuck]

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

That report was with data from 2 months ago.  The stockpile of ethanol has grown since then to epic proportions.  The stockpile has leveled off since last week but the production has declining steadily since last december. 

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_YOP_NUS_MBBLD&f=W

Guess they arent import enough of it yet.

[oncearound]

all vrbuck's "facts" seem incapable of stopping the "march" {;-) in old crop corn, you know the crop that according to some would have a $4 or $3 in front of it by now? look, just hit highs not seen since Sep......"duh"!!!!!!!

[Threadkiller]

i noticed yesterday at some pumps E-10 was priced 20 cents cheaper than straight unleaded.  maybe this  so called "glut" (which  is around 10% more stocks than a year ago) will encourage more people to try E-10 or increased ethanol blends now that the price of ethanol is so much cheaper than unleaded.