Ethanol tax credit to let expire??

[nwobcw]

This thread on the ethanol tax credit and the one on direct payments are the main 2 being responded to at this time. Losing 1 or the other and/or subsidized crop insurance would make farming a whole new ball game.  Losing all 3 would be almost unthinkable.  I'm not delving into the political end of it all, just the financial result.

[jrsiajdranch]

I hve been saying all fall there was aslim chance of getting the blenders credit thru!  ANd as to the politics first understand that if it doesn't get passed by Jan 1 it will be the Democrats who let it expire.  Al Goe just gave them all the cover they will ever need.

Second crop insurance will get cut in the next congress but not for the next farming year and probably not for 12 but certainly in the new farm bill.

Third I know it has been hashed over countless times on the direct pmt. thread.  But what is the justifaication for direct pms. again?

You guys in the corn loby better do all you can not to lose the import tarrifs on imported ethol cause that will put you at a decidedly poor advantge to Brazil!  So you may very well have to give up something to keep control of your market. 

If that will happen all that means is you have lost the incentive to move to a higher blend of ethol you have not lost the mandate.  Or the abilit to fill that mandate with US ethol.  all in all losing the credit will probably not have mre than a psychological impact.  JR

[patriot3031376]

Bone up a little before you talk JR. Have you seen sugar prices this fall? The Brazilians are shuttering cane etol plants because the feed stock can be sold for more profit than the finished product. We are exporting more US ethanol than ever. The import tarriff will not go away if the blenders credit does not. Congress will not subsidize a foreign product.

There are many varied studies pertaining to the effect of losing the blenders credit. I do agree with you that it will have more of a psychological effect than a real financial effect on corn growers as long as the RFS stays in place. There is also a financial incentive to blend cheaper etol into gas right now.

[booked]

JR are you sure Al Gore has much credibility left?

Failed run for president. Turns to fat college lecturer. Fails as a carbon credit trading type of ponzi schemer.

Admits to doing things just to gain votes as president. Failed at calling a hanging Chad as a vote.

Calls for the people to cut there use of fuel as his lights burn and his limos or suburban's Idle waiting for his sorry a$$ to get in.

Lives in a machinations saying don't look at it he buys carbon credits to ( from his now defunct carbon credit trading scam) OFFSET it.

 To his credit he has a Nobel peace prize give to him by a bunch of European Leftists which isn't worth $hit in my book.

I could go on but you get the picture.

[jrsiajdranch]

Patriot I was posting about sugar price 2 or 3 weeks ago just look up the history.  I am not talking about this year I am talking about in the future if you give up the ground now you will never get it back.  Do you think sugar will always be this high?  do you think there may not e a time when the price equation will make it better for them to make ethol to export?

As to congress not supporting a foriegn product well.................. really? 

Gots to go sell a couple of cows bye.

[jrsiajdranch]

Booked it isn't if he has credibility with you and me it's does he have credibility with the left?  You betcha he does! JR

[GoredHusker]

Some people it appears are a little tardy to the party.  The original question is will the ethanol tax credit expire?  It's been talked about for months.  We're into the lame duck.  The R's want the Bush tax credits extended while the D's want to repeal the "don't ask don't tell" policy.  Does anyone really believe they'll get around to the blenders credit?  To answer the original question, there's a 95-100% chance the ethanol blenders credit expires.  The better question is when will it be put back on and or will it be put back on?  I'm with JR on this one.  It's not as though sugar prices will stay high forever.  Allowing the import tariff to expire which basically is attached to the blenders credit would be the most damaging thing to our grain markets. 

[Mark, ncIA]

Some insiders were still giving it a 50/50 a week ago.  I'm with you Gored, <5% before the new congress, after that who knows?

The "tariff" (actually a coutervailing duty, as Brazilian ethanol is eligible for and recieves blenders credits too) is a WTO compatible way of protecting our domestic production, keeping the playing field level & not incentivising foreign competitors to our tax payers disadvantage (tax 'em on the frontside & give it back later).  The second the VEETC expires I'll bet Brazil brings up WTO charges over the duty & they'll win.  Something that neither the Al Gore crowd nor the Tea prty folks probably understand, or care too.

[jrsiajdranch]

Mark don't you think though that this would be a good time to go out there and fight to maintain our markets?  Wouldn't we get the American peoples backing in an all out trade war? JR

[Artifice]

I think GORE is a laughing stock these days, imagine he was almost president. Maybe some way left  type still like him. Disaster family man, some

3 cent 'ho he was accused of aggression? Scary.

Artifice