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NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Evening Trade 6/23

This is the first is a semi-regular ongoing series of posts focusing solely on the evening/overnight trade in corn.

 

Mike does a fantastic job keeping us up to date on the trading floor, and this is not intended as an affront to his effort there.

 

However, I do all of my trading in the evening and first thing in the morning and feel like I have some value to add, so here goes.

 

First, it has become apparent to me that the overnight trade can provide clues or "tells" as to the next days trading.

 

Case and point- beginning precisely at 8PM ET on 6/21(Tues), there was some very unusual trading on corn that lasted for about 2 hrs- 3 cent price swings in one minute, large volume, etc. We all saw what happened the following day. Last evening, this time starting at 2025 ET, including a HUGE volume trade of 1600+ contracts at 2034. Something was definitely up.

 

There are other examples in the past but I will leave it at that.

 

So, with all of that said:

 

At 8ET, July corn has gone up to 688 on momentum from the days trade.  Found a bottom at 684 around 1930ET. Seems like a normal evening trade so far.

 

2200 ET

 

Nothing exceptional happening. ZCN1 trading in the 687-688 range on normal volume.

 

**my take** - I suspect there will be continued buying overnight in light of todays price action. Today compares very well with 5/12 IMO

 

0700 ET

 

July contract bid up to 698 starting at 0330, presumably from London. No exceptional volume, typical trading pattern. Currently moving sideways at about 694.

 

**my take** - After the past two days, looking for a light trading day going into the weekend. Could be some buying going into the close to cover short positions and leading up to next weeks big report. Any funds that wanted out have gotten out.

 

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8 Replies
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Evening Trade 6/23

NCcorntrader,

 

Let me be the first to say that this is a great idea. I woud suggest that as you post throughout the night, put the time of the night at the top of each post, like I do during the day, to help folks follow you easier. I continue to edit my orginal post, stacking the latest information on top. You can certainly develop your own style. I just thought I would offer that suggestion. But, again, great idea and thanks for keeping everyone abreast of the e-trading on the "graveyard shift".

 

Mike

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NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: Evening Trade 6/23

Thanks for the support- I had considered sending you an email for your "approval" since this is IMO your board, but couldnt find it

 

Just so we are clear though- I do not sit up all night looking at corn futures. I will put it to bed around 10-11ET and then analyze the overnight first thing in the morning. nothing usually happens from about 10PM to 4AM anyway

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justinbarnes710
Veteran Contributor

Re: Evening Trade 6/23

NC-

Thank you for doing this.

I was glad to see your comparison to 5/12. 

The corn market has undergone several constructive pullbacks.  Difficult for me to think that we will continue to slide.

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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Evening Trade 6/23

Look forward to reading your comments going forward.

I usually check the markets before turning in and again first thing in the morning but I do not 'analyze' them. Just look to see the general trend.

I also check Mikes comments whenever, or if, I get a chance during the day.

 

For cash sales I will add the local basis continues to climb in Ontario.

Now listed as 35 cents over CBT for 56 lbs.

That is an increase from -$1 back in March.

That adds $53/tonne to the price I can get and CBT took $35 away in the last 10 days or so.

Some claim corn is hard to buy in Ontario because farmers are holding.

Of course maybe the farmers do not have any or much left too.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Evening Trade 6/23

NCcorntrader,

 

Thanks for the vote of confidence. I don't see this as my board. Instead, I see it as all users' board that care to contribute to the good of marketing thoughts and risk management strategy. The other day we had postings from Japan, Argentina, Canada and Europe all in one thread. I thought that was really interesting. So, this board is certainly far beyond me. I'm just a smalltown guy from southwest Iowa that never planted a seed.

 

Mike

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Evening Trade 6/23

We may have to send our favorite investigative reporter down to SE Iowa and check the facts of the story about not having sowed any seeds. I know many folks from that area of the world and they all grew bumper crops of wild oats! I'll bet you planted a few of those! Smiley Wink

 

In all seriousness you guys are doing a great job.  Wish I wasn't so danged busy no time for computer right now!

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WNC_Trader
Contributor

Re: Evening Trade 6/23

NC Corntrader....I look forward to your interpretation of the night market.  I watch it but there is very little volume in the out months. 

Mike gives us great insight from the floor and the local traders up there.  Your first observations were very interesting. I will watch, learn and try to be quiet.  

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Evening Trade 6/23

That's southwest Iowa. Oh yeah, I forgot, I did sow quite a few "oats".

 

Mike

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