Evening Trade 7/12

[NCcorntrader]

Well chalk up another reason to be out on report day. Pure crap shoot. USDA estimates a 150M bushel (1% of entire US production) change and the price soars. I know, the weather isnt so great and now there is renewed talk of QE3, but the report was the catalyst. Not complaining here, just my observations.

1950 ET

Volume has been strong but little price change since the close this afternoon. Sept at 664, Dec at 658.

** my take ** - momentum here is tough to get around. cash prices at many ethanol plants topping $7. its looking to me that is where we are headed.

2040 ET

Prices have inched up- about 667 for Sept. Still a good number of contracts being traded but nothing unusual.

2215 ET

Sept contract is holding steady at around 667.

** In the News ** - China Q2 GDP growth still strong at 9.5%. I would guess that is mildly bullish for grains.

0800 ET

After some selling from overnight there has been some serious buying this morning. Sept contract currently at 673 and change.

OUT

[glenlivet18]

+1 for not trading on report day, or at least not having a position at the bell.  Best to wait a bit and let the pandemonium die down.  I was so glad I got out of my short wheat position right before the evening trade closed.  Saved myself $1000 per contract.  But there were some good buying opportunities later on in wheat and corn.

More than ever I've come to believe that no one really has a clue where prices are going in these markets, and I've stopped listening to anyone who claims such.  I don't care how much experience they have or how much money they manage.  I just follow the prevailing trend, and if there isn't one I do as little as possible.

[NCcorntrader]

hey glen-

i was short corn from last week and also got out this morning. then i got in long Sept at 655 after it was clear the MO was not going to break today.

to your point though- the commodities markets are totally schizophrenic right now. partly due to low volume but mostly because everyone is clueless. i used to hold trades for about a week or two without a second thought, now 2 days is about the maximum.

i find this all very interesting but im glad i dont do it for a living.

[NDf]

I guess  I don't find these makets very unusal for this time of the year after all we are about to enter the reproduction phase of this crop. Mother nature is the only being that knows for sure where prices are headed the same as any other year in July.

[timetippingpt]

Totally agree Ndf. There is nothing unusual about the last 90 days in the grain markets.