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swmnfarmer2878522
Frequent Contributor

Expect big cancellations

China is about to get restocked with cheaper beans from SA.

6B5FE46E-9057-4239-B4AF-DD39450FACA0.png
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10 Replies
Clayseia
Frequent Contributor

Re: Expect big cancellations

Oh, because nobody expected this to happen?

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Beans to China this market year:

34.7 million metric tons already there or on their way, only 1.14 MMT yet to go.  It depends somewhat on how many beans China has on hand.  

  The Brazilians'  CONAB likes to play the same trick as the USDA, namely refuse to adjust down crop size until the very last.  The Brazilians may not have all the beans they currently claim to have.

 It would be nice to see a similar picture of US to China soybean boats.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Expect big cancellations

Well crap, I might as well contract 200% of my APH, I`ll surely be able to buy beans this fall to fill them.

Image

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Expect big cancellations

Possible and maybe probable........... Loads may get diverted to the US to get us through the summer?

Unless usda starts delivering their bushels.

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aaron4020
Frequent Contributor

Re: Expect big cancellations

Karen Braun on Twitter: "For example, this vessel was loaded with 63K  tonnes of #soybeans in Paranagua, #Brazil on February 19. It will travel to  #China by way of Singapore, dropping off

 

Looks like shipments are running light for this time of year. And considering that almost all their US purchases have been shipped already I can't see what the big deal is.

nitefarm
Advisor

Re: Expect big cancellations

It’s like the government, watch the right hand and don’t pay any attention to what the left hand is doing. 

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Expect big cancellations

I think the bigger question is Chinese inventories, which are pretty opaque.

They were doing a lot of building of crude oil erserves during the price slump, which may or may not be informative.

They might logically have begun to view grain stocks as more of a strategic matter following the recent kerfuffel.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Expect big cancellations

opaque??"?    Aren't they reporting their supplies on a regular basis.... usda seems to quote them on a regular basis like it is true....... another reason to question usda.......

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Expect big cancellations

Kinda  like  a  Nat  Gas  supply  report  on Febr   -  2021 ,   5% increase  supply  reported over  2015 - 19  average  &  we  see how  that  worked  out  -  -  -

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