Expectations For Selling This Corn Crop
The 2015 production numbers are being worked up and there is some history about what range they are likely to be in.
2016 planting intentions are rather loosey goosey, especially figuring how prevented planting acres might come back into production and what producers will switch out of corn.
According to the U/Ill, history reveals that usually the Dec and Jan corn numbers are in a relationship to the Sep and Oct and that not give us a lot of hope that bunch of bushels will disappear.
In a nutshell, it might be necessary to look at the numbers and prices we have and figure out how to live with it.
Farmdoc.com says about corn, "...we do not anticipate the final yield estimates to be below the November forecasts."
For 2016, "Our current expectation is that a persistence of low prices into planting time might result in a marginal increase in corn acreage and a marginal decline in soybean acreage."
Will these views come to pass? We don't know. In my opinion, formed before I read this report, I pretty much agree with them.
A big question is, if one shoots for higher prices, what is the strategy to be sure it doesn' tget any worse than it is now?
I've never been a believer in selling the cash and buying paper.
My marketing plan is probably to sell on time and target and be bins empty by July, maybe even before. Usually, I don't write my marketing plan out - it seems so hopeless - but this year I might just to force myself to thnk about it and hopefully not let the prices ooze downhill to much without facing the facts.
the budgets I am operating under to pay myself a salary, update equipment, and pay my landlords (including myself) market based rents, use $4 corn and $10 soybeans and historical yields. Not a lot of fluff, but a budget under which I keep eating regularily, gas in the tanks, and shoes on the kid's feet.
I sold agressively this last summer for the July 2016 corn market, and the November 2015 soybean market and am in good shape to weather the coming storm. Big Bob , the bearest market advisor says that the best remaining market windows are from now until jan 1, and next may-june....which is based on seasonal tendancies and tight farmer holding.
Be patient and you probably get a chance near those prices....just a few weeks ago I saw a $3.98 bid for january 17. If you sell when everyone else is selling, you will be a bottom third marketer. Getting a price set for 2016 and 2017 is probably prudent, too, cause we are not in a bull market with increasing carryovers.
Some ships are likely to sink....try to position yourself so that you are not one of the leaky vessels. If you do need $5 plus corn and/or $12 soybeans, you are in a position where you should be proactive and talk to your lenders and landlords and make some immediate adjustments.
My two cents.