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Honored Advisor

Explaination needed

 Can someone explain to me how we have 7.1 billion bu of corn left?

 

We were close to out of available supplies and were IMPORTING corn for 6 months last year.

 

Harvest started in August and the first 1 billion went to fill pipelines. The second billion went away before this crop year really got started.

 

Ethanol has burned through at least 3 billion.

 

Been a few billion used up in the livestock feed category.

 

Exports have gotten rid of 1+ billion bu too.

 

Ray J and others like him and other assorted industrial users have emptied a few trucks too.

 

We started out empty (or nearly so) grew an amazing 13+ billion bu crop and have been using it as fast as we can. 

 

How can we have 7+ billion of it left?

 

Wish my checking account would work out like the corn #'s do.

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9 Replies
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Honored Advisor

577 read this thread

NOT one with a rebuttal?

No one out there with #'s to fix this?

Just everybody shaking their heads at me?

No matter what I can't come up with more than a long 5 billion.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: 577 read this thread

I am not going to argue with you on this one. I don't understand their math, either!

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Senior Contributor

Re: 577 read this thread

My only thoughts are, that they used the best numbers that they had in front of them, at the time.

Whether or not the first 1B bushels got 'double counted' or not, can be argued pretty strongly by both sides.

 

Other than that, I'm sticking with they made their best guess, with the numbers they had at the time.   Remember that the gov't accounting runs a bit behind 'real time' and it takes a while for increased sales/use to show up on the balance sheet.

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Honored Advisor

Re: 577 read this thread

The #'s must be leaked...or there is much pessimism out here as the corn market is on the express elevator down again. 16 cents down from what I sold a few bu's at Fri morn. ouch

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Honored Advisor

Re: 577 read this thread

Maybe Mark Gold is right for a change.......he still thinks there is 5-6 billion bushels in farmer's bins.......

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Veteran Contributor

Re: 577 read this thread

I don't know how much is in the farmers bins, but local elevators around here are full.  FREE price later got em all they wanted and now basis is crap.  "Free" price later should be illegal IMHO.  I can't believe how many bushels fall into that trap.  Any leverage you had is gone.  As for the local ethanol plants around here (SW MN) they are mostly bought up as far as they want to go.  Thinking basis could really get bad as the growing season moves along? 

 

Got a little rain this a.m. and the snow for all intensive purposes is gone.  Supposed to get some cold and a little snow tonite.  We will be later than we have gotten used to, but should be fine. 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 577 read this thread

more time later...but at first blush, and remember these numbers are as of March 1, not today

 

Ethanol-------usage was not 3 byn in first six months of marketing year....much closer to 2.5 byn

 

bringing corn ahead ----yes, that happens, but if you calculate how much was brought back into the 12/13, you are going to have to make an adjustment for the 14/15 year coming back into 13/14 later this summer.....probably not 1 for 1 this year as compared to last

 

exports------we have sold large amounts, but our shipments are also way behind this year.....something to watch

 

13.9 byn production plus 821 myn carry-in, means we started with 14.1 byn.....stox are 7.00 byn, so we used 7.1 byn in first six months of the marketing year.......total usage per wasde is 13.3+ byn (using 1.6 for exports, which may be light)...

 

so expect some adjustments in April s/d with a few more exports and smaller carryout...

 

Later

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 577 read this thread

I say put your USDA # concerns to bed----the market certainly did.

 

outsideday/higher close on this entire move by 10 cents --- largest RANGE day since August ---- mkt action is saying something! 

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Advisor

Re: 577 read this thread

cyclone, i agree. should be illegal.

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