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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Export charts

I get these charts from a service I have access to ....... showing history of bean and corn exports comparing brazil and US(and argentina --too small to matter)  Lets call it the EEG monitor or world grain sales.  The pace of sales naturally look like two opposing engines running on the same scale --Brazil peaking in winter and US peaks in summer steady beats 2014 through to 18.......... but we go afib in 18 with US corn sales reaching new highs and Brazil bean sales reaching higher highs instead of the comparible even seasonal sales of the previous four years

Then in 19  Brazil Goes high in corn exports while the US skips a beat with low sales of corn....

But in 19 Beans Brazil sells its normal number of exports with a more steady demand(May deliveries at a did not peak as high as the record shipments but overall sales are above normal for Brazil and for once sales went year round.  The US on the other hand, had a fall peak sales higher than 18 and year round sales but the peak is not there and sales are off.........from normal in 18 and 19.

So I am thinking there has to be a surplus of beans in the US, under this rock or that.  Stinking poor basis in most of production areas would support that ----- except basis has been improving at the end user and the piles can't be found.

I still suspect ASF was like gluten alergies ............. real but not real....... a convenient public con

I see the world grain supply needs a doctor...... but I am not sure of the cause...   Bean sales to China from Brazil continues its historic pace with a slight increase in 2018.  And in 2019 corn Brazil exceeded itself at record levels and exceeded US exports per year over the last several years.  

 

The more I stare at these It says to me one other possibility....... The US has had some short crops the last two years.  Especially in 19 corn.  (or much of 19 will not hit the market until 20)  

Anyway the patient sure has a palpitation issue that needs to get fixed.  The Brazilian increases of 18 & 19 are to be expected since Chinese investment of their gains from US trade in Brazil.  

Im gonna run these by my MD this morning and see where it takes me.

 

 
6 Replies
k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Export charts

CON    -  in  Webster,  brings  several interesting entries,   con-tradiction,  con-tempt,  con-tent,  con-tention,  con-sultant , con-tagious,  con-vection,  con-servationist ,   con-servative,   congressional   &  several  more  -  -  -

Alternative  facts  may  apply  - maybe - ?         

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Export charts

you have a point........... the more data I see the harder it is to see the facts.  And since there is no reliability of information presented....... just a computer model or guess at a probability.  After all science wise, a potential probability is enough.

So someone verify...... how much corn is in open storage in the US today????  

 

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Export charts

I've got 23 semi loads UN sold, unpriced, not mortgaged, not pledged as collateral.

then there are the beans....uuuugggggggg.

 

Gonna be a fun ride putting in this year's crop....not

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Export charts

Ya   The storage facility I bookkeep for caters to a few local farms.  That group took 2.5 m bushels of corn out of circulation in 2019 by planting choices.... We have no corn....... and no beans unpriced  ---- no milo  ---- a little wheat that no one wants to plant.  More acres going to cotton.........but that is not guaranteed.... when your spending $9 an acre inch of water for the crop --- the basis needs to cover it.   

There are ground piles in the area (corn 0r milo)  But half those are owned by end users (ethanol or committed to livestock feeders)---- Local coops have one...each..... one may be 5 years moving it and the other hasn't got an elevator left that can pass an inspection... so ground pile keeps it alive.    One at an adm facility has 60K bushels of milo on the ground... no good reason except no place to store small amounts.

The adm terminal on the sw to mexico or LA line has piles -----always ... a train loader without storage????????  Rumor is it will get dumped on a Coop soon.

 

This deal just gets more interesting by the day......Futures and basis have been in conflict since before harvest.  Basis trying to buy grain and futures caught in the fake news battle royal.   Well today it seems like futures finally got mad at basis and played its _____ card.  The famed black swan event or at least the hopes of it.  These days that is the precurser of a calamity you might miss if you go to lunch at the wrong time, but "real bad now" seems to be the best we can do...  Comical... we should have bought trainloads of  wipe tissue.... or true to the times, "sears catalogues"  butt I'll bet both of those are produced in a "just in need-just in time" basis.

So for today the funds managers win........ lets finish our count of actual available stocks of corn or beans or wheat..... 

And shut down the ports for the protection of our citizens.   Lets give the old cover crop idea a try..... to keep the dirt down this spring and have a marketing retreat this summer with real attendance ----when were not tending the garden or shooting at the folks trying to steal our livestock.

----------------------

Not wanting to think about it too much but this does have two very real potential outcomes....... 1. Reversing the flow of young people to the cities --back to the safety of rural communities.  (the lack of safety has not been an issue up til now but a little media pandemic fear and cheap gas might get the traffic pattern changed.  No jobs either place evens the playing field)         and 2.  If the media gets what it projects.... a very real swing in political philosophy numbers.     (3.  tenure won't protect anybody from a bunch of coughing kids..........  schools will close and we can teach kids how to work.......... we might get these baby boomers on skids.... ...... at least 14.8% of them  according to CDC and every media outlet  at a very high volume. )   The internet has never been our friend....it is the new faster crew of 4-wheelers running around in circles trying to "round" us up and get a brand on us.

The cows don't seem to indicate any storm coming at all just a heavy annoyance to yelling and motorized cowboys.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Export charts

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Export charts

I read their bean harvest is being delayed by .................... "dry" weather.  Not sure of that at all but the last blabbing idiot spreading the rumor said it that way on my rad-twit-onitor.    During my nap time yesterday.

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