F C Stone, Informa, USDA Reports

[vandenplas]

It is obvious the majority of posters on here are trashing FC Stone, or anybody else who predicts a large production. FCStone, Informa and others have been doing this reporting for DECADES, and pretty much know what they are doing.  They might miss a little now and then, but not by much and not very often.  There are about 10 or 12 such companies doing this, and they wil all be coming out in the next few days before USDA.  They obviously have credibility or they would be out of business.  The trade believes them, whether you do or not. 

So, as a previous poster so succinctly put it in an earlier thread, "get over yourself."

And look, the market has not crashed tonight, yet.  So maybe the big crop has already been built into the market. 

Accountability?  They are accountable to their customers, not you or me.  Our "whining" about accountability is out of line, in my opinion.

Corn will be $3.00 to $3.75 for a long time.  Beans, less than $10 before long.  My opinion of course.  Plan and market accordingly.

[jennys_mn]

Just because it has always been done that way, doesn't necessarily make it right.  Longevity does not guarantee sanctity...as the Catholic church has come to find out.  Maybe, just maybe, no one has asked the question.  Maybe no one has challenged the Authority.   And maybe I'm wrong.  OK - tell me why I'm wrong.  I'll buy it if it's a legitimate answer, but just that it's always been done that way is not good enough in my book.  I've challenged Authority all my life.  I see no reason to stop now.

Jen

[Farmerjoe79]

I just think it funny somebody needs a marketing firm to help them be a better marketer. Like I said before my neighbors used there information the last four years and some had to quit and some are barely hanging on to there land cause of the High rents. Just cause some marketing firm told them to be 90% sold and then they raised half a crop. I will quit farming the day someone tells me how to market my grain.

[jennys_mn]

Selling what you don't have is a great way to "buy the farm" - as in lose it.  None are guaranteed a crop - but for some it's more of a guarantee than others.  Farming "on the fringe", I never sold more than 50% of what I thought I COULD produce.  And even that a lot of years was pushing it.  With revenue coverage, you probably would be "safe" selling to that level - no more.

Jen

[Farmerjoe79]

But the best thing is they are never wrong. How can they make you sell 20% 10 times over. I don't know how there math works but I guess it don't matter when they are not held accountable for it:).

[highyields]

Anyone that thinks those so called, "market experts" are on the side of a farmer is a fool in their own right.  I would like to know how much cash flow these companies actually make trading the markets on actual trades.  I would imagine a lot comes from "selling their knowledge"  

EVERYONE but the corn farmer wants cheap grain,  There is NO ONE that uses corn that wants it to be $7/bu.  NO ONE,  and everyone involved is going to do everything they can to keep it on the cheap side.   There was one VERY LARGE trading firm that came on and side go short on ag commodities back in May, Think that didn't make the market fall quicker then it did??  

Why the hell do these companies even put estimates out????   to make the market move.......  Thats the only reason.    USDA is the only numbers that most look at,,,,like I heard someone else say once "USDA is a price manager" and they want the price to go down.  

Two things with the price of corn, if we are at the end of a 100 year cycle in the economy,,,,then we might take 90% off the high off corn so where looking at $1/bu corn,, Hey it happend before, it can happen again,,,This only occurs if the rest of the world economy goes to pieces,,,, Or the 2nd one could be we are going to bounce in this $3 dollar to $4.50 range for a couple years until supplies fall enough to make price go a little higher again.   are the days of $7 gone,, probably for a while any way.     If this is the end of a long count cycle, then it will be a very long time before corn gets back to $7,   I highly doubt this happens though since it will take total demand destruction, or a HUGE increase in production.     But it could,,it has happened in the past.    

[NDf]

I'm sorry vander, but that's BS that they are right more times than not

[vandenplas]

Informa, FC Stone, etc., you name them---they are a business, just like farming.  They have cost inputs, just like farmers, they are in competition with other firms, just like farmers are in competition with other farmers, etc.  Do not judge, lest ye be judged?  There are no good guys or bad guys in this picture.  People are trying to make a living, trying to make a profit,  most doing so legitimately, including FC Stone, Informa AND the farmers.  REports are reports.  Do with them what you want.  Trashing those who produce them is just as bad as they would be if they trashed farmers for producing what they produce, if they do not like what farmers produce.

This is a two way sword.  Produce, market, consider reports, as you see fit.  Then act accordingly.  End of Sermon.    

[tree fmr]

I understand they have a place, mean well, and do the best they can. Personally I read the free information (like on this site) and make the best decisions I can. With that said let me grab their flyer because I feel its time to visit my throne and I need scratch paper!

[vandenplas]

What authority are you challenging?  What have "they" been doing that you are upset about?