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09-04-2013 04:47 PM
The Bean number is simply ludicrous. Might I suggest those gents get out of the pickup and do some work walking.
No way beans are over 40. None. Maybe NASS says so in a few days, but by January, way below 40.
I did some pod counts today. Nodes 10 to 12 (normal for us would be 14). Pods per node...3 formed but only avg 1.65 left and then only an average of 1.7 beans per pod. Dropping leaves. They are done. Maybe pull a 40 average since we have well cared for good dirt. LAst year this field would of been around 70.
What I am suggesting is that any area that has been less than 35% of normal rainfall like us WILL BE 60% of average yields (that is 40% below average for you glass half empty types) . You guys can look at the maps and guess, but I come up with about a 35 nat avg BEST CASE.
Not that anyone cares at FC Stone.
09-04-2013 05:36 PM
some other "market expert" said something about a grower survey of 39 bushels/ac. Your 35 is close. I've never seen beans just dry up and die before. according to by count beans should have hit $20/bu before this commodity cycle is over. We might get that depending on what is going on in the Soutern Hempishere. One thing about soybean demand is that China has to buy soy from somebody and I don't know how the Brazil ports are any better then they where this year.
We had one of the direst august on record here so we went from record beans to not to much in a hurry.
I read alot of Corn demand and the need for corn to go lower, I really don't think corn has to go much lower to stimulate demand. We just need the bushels for the US to export, or for or domestic users to use. The guys that are really screaming cheap corn is the ethanol plants. Now if corn was heading back to two why would the ethanol plants be saying sell now?? Ethanol plants make money weather the farmer does or not. Its nice they care for us farmers so but still guys, please, not so much.
09-04-2013 06:15 PM
09-04-2013 07:07 PM
There is a BIG inverse in ethanol values from this to next month.......if I recall, it is about the equivalent of $1.30 per bushel
and once we get the old/new transition completed, DDG values will be taking a dive as well....
$5 corn is $180/ton.......DDG's still $235/ton.....if they back off to 95% of corn, that will be $170-175/ton
09-04-2013 08:37 PM - edited 09-04-2013 08:47 PM
time:, -- re: soy - yer in IN, right....imagine IL westward & north, incl MO -- even 1/3-1/2 of delta has been too dry!
my most conservative est. is 2.43 bil. based on precip patterns, pro farmers pod counts and what you guys are seeing edit - and Gann,year of the 3's, etc - too many of y'all have said you've NEVER seen the beans look this bad!......looking at the long term yield chart we might test those lows (30)
highyields - i'm seeing significant probability of 62% - 78% + your price # by next spring.
my 3 cents - mark it....................
09-05-2013 08:39 AM