FCS and Informa

[hardnox]

Come in close to USDA on corn, a bit higher yet on beans.

Trade rumblings seem to lean in that direction on beans, lower on corn.

My sense of it is probably approximately worth what theirs is (little to nothing), but I'd agree. But until something new presents I think USDA was also plenty optimistic on the demand side to the extent that a drop of a few BPA will be approximately offset over time (hopefully the revelation waits until after the insurance price discovery period. Probably not going to come into play here but will help those in less favored places).

A lot of wheat, and off-grade wheat- around the globe. It is what it is but the frustrating part for producers is getting to the point where the futures represent milling quality rather than off-grade. That can take a while- actually went that way for several years in SRWW when Toledo got plugged up with off-grade stuff. Not sure there's an exact problem of that sort out there, though- what I hear most will at least make feed grade.

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

I still think that if someone has confidence that his/her call on the ultimate yield is better than the USDA and others and if that person has any hope of convergence then that person has a wonderful opportunity for arbitraging the system and making good money.  The actual yield is less important that perception until the corn is in the bin.  But the rumor sell the fact (or vice-versa).

[hardnox]

Corn in '95 and beans in '03 stand out in my mind as examples where early yield talk gave a strong tip that USDA number would come down a lot.

They happen, but they're about that rare. Mostly it is just the same 'ol complaining and just noise. If you've been following this or other boards for a while you know that continues even in good crop years.

FWIW, if there's a widespread condition that would lead to that (GLS in '95, soy aphids in '03) I'm unaware of it.

BTW, the other issue is acres and Informa captures the background fear that harvest acreage of both can rise given low PP.

They're all different, too- no perfect analog years. I guess if there's an agronomic argument for lower corn yields it is persistent warm temps. I remain committed to the belief that corn that the benefit of a dry June is a counterweight to that. Corn that has good roots and only brief periods of modest moisture stress can take a lot.

Been a pretty good late fill period, too. If we can get it harvested.