FCStone goes lower on corn

[John_Walter]

FCStone just released a report pegging the U.S. corn yield at 121.4 bu/ac and total production at 10.607 billion bushels. That compares with USDA's forecast last month of 123.4 bu/ac and 10.779 billion bushels.

The company forecasts soybean yields to be 36.7 bu/ac and output at 2.739 billion bushels. USDA was at 36.1 bu/ac and output of 2.692 billion bushels.

So corn lower and beans a tad higher? Sound feasible? Thoughts?

John

[highyields]

beans are hurt worst then the people in chicago think

[giolucas]

There we go falling in beans......down in the 1730's.    Did we hit the highs?  Who knows but here comes the September 12th report.

[Canuck_2]

I have been told Allendale's forecast is 

Corn;  10.326 Billion and 118.2/ac

Soy;     2.602 Billion and 34.9/ac

Market will be in the doldrums until the USDA report.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

I am not sure the market fully comprehends these numbers.........I think complacency has taken over due to boredem......

We are talking about crazy low numbers that could go lower......

I agree that soya are much worse than some wanna admit........we could be looking at a 2.5B crop and corn could still go sub 10B......

Then we have this world wheat thing......

O well......markets know best.......

[timetippingpt]

IF the USDA prints these numbers, you can expect a limit down day in beans.

As I look at the state by state bean numbers, IN/OH/MO/KY will increase in equal amounts to what IA/WI go down. The issue then becomes MN/NE with IL up a little as well. Not sure how that works out, but odds of a bearish bean report are easily 50/50.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

I agree that a bearish soya report could be looming.......

But two things.......why is a 2.5 or 2.6 crop bearish........and why do you think soya yields or output will increase.......dead or dieing soya don't put on more pods.....

We have some decent looking soya from the road.......especially for no rain and 100 all summer.....but there's no pods in there......only reason they look decent is they were planted in April and had a fighting chance......anything planted mid May got beat up too early........we have a couple hundred acres of replant that are about 3 weeks later planted than the rest so we will see if planting date mattered.......

Overall we are hoping for 20......expecting 5 to 10......and prepared for 0.......

This is ground that has pushed 50 to 70 the last several years......

It takes pods to make yield and we have too few..........only thing alittle rain did was plump some flat pods up........didn't add anymore pods......its too little too late for most........

[roarintiger1]

They might trade the report of a day or two. If the market trades limit down, the beans will be "on sale" and end users will be in big time buying. We are still not rationing soybean demand and lower prices will just make the overall supply disappear.

[timetippingpt]

Why would a 2.6 B bean crop be bearish? Pretty simple. It is already in the price at $18. Without a frost the bean market has a mere few days of TIME left (giving it an extension already). With a frost (which must happen in the next 20 days to matter at all) it has no more than 4 weeks left to top out.

These are the END TIMES for grain farmers.

As to rationing demand in soybeans, we don't have to do that until next June, IF it is even required. Between now and March there will be more than ample supply of soybeans, especially $18 ones. Most people forget that you only have to ration the carryout in July/August/Sept and there are alot of ways to do it. It does not have to happen anytime in the next 5 months. Basis is a different market than the funny money side in Chicago. Two seperate decisions.

[highyields]

another thing that we need to look at is that number in beans assuming planting on double crop acres?   double crop beans in my area I'm not sure if they will be cut or not.    There isn't a lot but there is a few.