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Veteran Advisor

Re: Failing grade to the media

Roaring, Hobby and Sw
I get what you guys are saying but I have always felt that the market, day traders and long term investors are at the mercy of ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Dreyfus. Wherever they want the market to go they will take it there.
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rasig
Visitor

Re: Failing grade to the media

Also our Budget deficit and our trade deficit go hand in hand. they stairstep together.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Failing grade to the media

Going through corn estimates this morning. If on the world stage we produce the amount of corn estimated throughout the world, we will consume 1.5 billion more bushels than produced if demand stays the same.
China wants to produce more ethanol for fuel maxing out out 2020. I would think that's pretty bullish numbers
Just wondering how long it will take the market to acknowledge it.
What is more concerning looking back at history is the fact that the last time grain prices inflated a government was overthrown. Egypt. If prices do get back to the 2008-2013 levels, they will not be allowed to stay there for long.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Failing grade to the media

I want to apologize for the fact that I posted the wrong link about the Faruzzi price manipulation incident this is the one I had originally read
https://www.bauer.uh.edu/spirrong/ferrpap3.pdf
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Failing grade to the media

The challenge with China is knowing what they really have for corn inventory

 

 

Senior Contributor

Re: Failing grade to the media

BMO ag conference wrap: Nitrogen rally, M&A in Brazil, trade disputes
http://www.seekingalpha.com/news/3358588
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Senior Contributor

Re: Failing grade to the media

This was just published on seeking alpha about china
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Failing grade to the media

As is always the case, we each broadcast our own message and either ignore what others say or try to interpret or twist it to agree with us.

 

My consistent message is to not pay very much attention to day-to-day trades but rather aim at hedging at appropriate times and then paying enough attention to not get whipsawed if the market goes badly against you.

 

Day-by-day trades are of minimal interest to me, although at the coffee shop many farmers talk about them.  Some talk from the perspective of the guy who has unpriced grain in the bin and is trying to decide when to sell it.  I'm not in that situation very often.  Maybe to that marketer day-to-day trades are important.

 

Like the old Indian said, "what you see depends on where you stand" and we all stand in different places, it seems.  We could each be totally right.  We could each also be at least partly wrong.  (I'm usually partly wrong and sometimes it seems more than partly).

 

But right now I'm holding my Nov soybean shorts and am still out of the market on corn.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Failing grade to the media

Why. Beans are wandering around in the same trade range for 3 years.
Corn on the other hand is selling today in prices high for a couple of years.
I get back to office I’ll try to generate some examples.

Anyway Jim are you seeing opportunity or just doing what you normally do ?
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