Fall 2020 "off combine" price predictions?

[clayton58]

I need to make that decision soon on wheat harvest time basis is better now than it’s been for the last several years 

[elcheapo]

Good question clayton.  Doubt

If the corn boys can help you.

Wonder where SW is....I usually

Take his opinion with consideration.

I havent been keeping up with

Things (which I should have).

What is the talk on the conditions

Out there. 

An idea might be to "pre-sell"...

Just so you capture the basis...

Seems basis drops at harvest.

If good indications, maybe go

Long on paper....(get a call).

The problem will be, where will

Wheat be this fall with the forthcooming market trainwreck

At the harvest time of corn and

Beans...can news in wheat overcome issues in corn and

Beans ?....i doubt for a while.

These crops could have long tails.

Typically we will see a bump

From late feb on....but if we have

Corn and beans stuck in every

Hole we can find...due to etoh

Down, and trump strikes again

With trade to the beans....

Amazing....a marketing firm

Keeps emailing me saying

They will call me when its time

To sell.

I can do that...I know when to sell...

When I need money.

[sw363535]

Sw is on a sprayer watching win blow.  What a hard year so far.  Wind wind wind. Not much for earn.  Cotton didn’t come up — seri in the air.   

Wheat. Won’t be much here.  So that says. Capture a good basis and buy some paper 9 to 12 months out.  Sick of owning the real stuff nobody wants.  I remember when Russia had bread lines. We line up for TP and political porn  

[sw363535]

This platform is so messed up

Not so much for RAIN

DIRT in the air.  

More wheat here got destroyed and chopped for feed than will be harvested  

[timetippingpt]

Wheat shall lead us out of the darkness in to the promised land.....

Crop conditions are simply fantastic in N-In, terrible south of indy, but in general, the NASS scores seem reasonable. Best spring ever for many.

[clayton58]

Seems like there must be a “time warp” between IN and SW KS. Every time wheat try’s to start a rally the rug gets pulled out from under it. The crop here was running out of gas on the last laps. We had a good rain Memorial Weekend and that got us almost to the end of the race but it’s faltering on the last corner and straight away to the checkered flag. Not finishing well 

[sw363535]

I understand...... my response was somewhat self centered.  sorry time.... hadnt had a chance to see home since friday afternoon.  Until now for a few hours of food while the hot wind blows... then it is back to my very own pallet of bricks.  I suffer from the same problems though.  after 40 years of raising irrigated corn ya start thinking everybody's life is easy like mine.  And everyone else should be as smart as me.

Answer should have been  to the point.... what will the markets be this fall....  As we finnish our 8th or 12th shakedown of Congressional handouts "Pay us or we'll riot even more".   (the first three I can remember was in the 60's)(what does a 1%er become when it grows up?)

Point is ...... I haven't had much faith in congress for a while.  But on this election year my marketing world has changed. It hit me like a brick....... we have no predictability in the futures markets.... but suddenly the futures seem more stable to me than the US economy.   So I think wheat is a good buy on paper...... no one did the western ks bar tour and indiana won't take my word for it ... so buy some paper wheat..... someone is gonna come up short by fall. hot off the trail of australian wheat diseaster wheat has no reason to fall.  Haven't heard a word about the gluten 19 death tole.  

Corn and beans.......... Brazil "gigantic" super duper hasn't turned out quite that way.... beans will be short of acres in US but acres will be in the right places and not out on the fringe.   Corn is getting more fringe acres, but the fringe isn't getting corn belt moisture......... 

Best shot IMO......60% chance... Corn $4.65 by harvest..Beans $9.90  and wheat at $6.. gas shortages.....    Same chance ...... social unrest and an election year........ 60% chance of bread lines, gas shortages.  internet service dismal and many twitter interruptions..

The grains have all the fundamentals of blasting higher --especially if we ever evaluate the covid 19 numbers and evaluate the value of masking all the good guys --- and since we have all this time to barbecue and eat without spending money on sports.... saw a great video of a lady jerking her mask down to spew opinion of loosing a job.  Priorities....  maybe bread, a steak, and a gallon of milk will be top proirity rest of the year........ and we shut off the TV's and political porn.  Well Im dreaming.........

Sunday afternoon made a run for sprayer parts and hit sunset in the windshield, heading west, near Alva Oklahoma..... NWOSU was on my options list heading to college but I never took it serious,  Needing sleep and a beautiful evening we drove across campus and through the sports complex to the special parking where boosters can watch the football game from the car if desired....(Oklahoma just has a flair for the odd shaped ball.)  Three levels of parking in the south end of the canyon surrounding a beautiful Ranger field and facilities.  Wife and I pretended to be staring in "Cars" for a while.  Two young guys throwing........ something far better than a brick.  We drove home hoping that wasn't just a vision of the past.

so I am optimistic grains just as I have been most election years.... Not optimistic of raising any.  The production side is stressed..... the old planter has seen a lot of years and acres. Weather is severe..... No rain in April and March wind until June 1,  Insurance claims will be popular.   Telemetry on sprinklers has no service man or wifi......takes a web search to order kleenex so sprinkler stops will have to wait..... The folks making millions off this technology won't take a dime for service.

intollerence will sell like hotcakes driving the price to $48 a pallet.  Delivery anywhere is free.   

Our "just in time" system is out of step and the lack of competion in most areas is not a smart move.   and buying and selling paper will be much easier than sourcing supplies for a while.   More talkers in marketing these days than producers..... we will catch up eventually....

clayton we stayed down on 64 all the way...... there is some nice wheat around medford as always but not much left to harvest west..... although 64 is a drive through cattle country much of the way.  Panhandle area about 1/3 of planted acres left to harvest.... saw more greenchop wheat than any year to date...... some triticale by choice.... (that looked like a winner)

[sw363535]

In my mind it’s reowning after or before the sale. In a less risky form than binning a crop I need for cash flow that is far easier to get out of if I’m wrong.  No storing and no bugs.  Whole hog or just buy a contract or two.  A few months out. My binning of wheat (or paying storage) ends regretable too often.  Occasionally it gives you a 40 cent bounce in 30 days.    I’m allergic to wheat.  

[sw363535]

It’s a personal choice with wheat. 

Reasons

dont raise much of it 

bin space is needed in 60-80 days  

Use wheat income for cash flow

reowning paper easier to do than farm stored loans.  

If it turns against me paper is easier to get out of quick than delivering wheat in August

no bugs or quality issues   ( 85% of my end user contracts for binned  wheat have an issue on the last 1-2 loads  even if they came of the top. 

Life experiences