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a week ago
From M to M and USFR: Chinese consumers cheering as a butchered hog is rolled out amid empty shelves at the meat counter. ASF found in Sooth Aficka. A lot of gloom & doom, beans lowest price in a decade.
USFR: planting delays, even John Phipps is delayed planting. Meanwhile back on M to M Ted Seifert says even with lost acres, lower yields, still too much supply. Arlen Souderman on USFR said something interesting about in 1985 a study was done on negotiating with China, that you need to expect them to move goalposts and go back on what was previously agreed on. So as General MacArthur famously boasted about "understanding the Oriental mind", they are following the old playbook.
I`m forecasting the national corn yield in 2019 at 158/bushel per acre. Mike Hoffman USFR weatherman is calling for 30 days of more cold, more wet where it`s been wet and cold for those of us that weren`t "wet as last year". Even the notoriously droughty "4 corners" region is too wet...well not really but not as dry as usual.
But let`s say you`re looking at planting beans earliest June 1 and you`re looking at $7 beans and a 40 bushel yield, $280 gross. Your rent is $250, your "cheap seed" is $50...are you going to throw the kitchen sink at your bean crop? Potash, fungicide, 100% weedfree field? For some the low yielding bean crop will be a self fullfilling prophesy as ..."I`m raising it cause it`s too late for corn and it`s the insurance company`s crop anyway".
As the Chinese curse says "may you live in interesting times"
a week ago
Unfortunately I agree, I would love for someone to entertain me on how beans will ever get to $9 again. And let`s say cash beans are in the 6`s in areas...well the rain falls on the righteous as well as the wicked, that includes Brazil and the rest of the world. If we have + 1 billion bushel bean carryover and $6 beans, I don`t see how "unknown destinations" such as "Vietnam" and "Thailand" won`t go to that gifthorse firesale.
I think there will have to be blood to reset the supply to use ratios. If we had a brain in our heads we wouldn`t get behind the 8-ball ...any further and at least ask for a supply management farm program, checking our pride at the door. We just can`t go balls to the wall production year after year and have a string of above trend yields and not expect this "perfect storm" at some point.
a week ago
More than a month ago, the Chinese trade negotiators sent the American draft proposals back with large sections of it crossed out. They made it very clear at that time that some things weren't acceptable and won't be accepted. Still this administration repeatedly said, "it's coming along nicely".
The Chinese haven't reneged on anything. Either the trump administration deluded themselves or they were just lying.
a week ago
"coming along nicely" is a very subjective statement and we aren`t going to really know how negotiations are going until after the fact. IMO, it would be best to just write China off, expect nothing from them and impose a 50% tariff on the junk they send us, the further our beans drop the higher the tariffs on their products should be.....100% if necessary. That tariff revenue on their plastic junk could then be used to fund a decent farm program.
Since raising soybeans isn`t wall to wall employment, perhaps soybean growers could take a part time job assembling US made I-Phones and pink plastic flamingos in the off season
Look the founding fathers weren`t whinny cry babies when they dumped the tea in Boston harbor and told the British to stick it where the sun doesn`t shine, I think if we use our heads we can handle anything the stupid Chinese throw our way.