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Honored Advisor

February Corn market.

We are into it,  like my grandson approaches standing water,  "tip toeing into harvest".  

We know the market behind us.  We have had a look at this crop.

We are getting the reality of getting it in ------- from a mid october viewpoint.

 

Where do you think we go on corn prices into the feb 15 insurance price "fixing"?

 

I think we look at the $4.85 range.  For several reasons.

 

What do you think?

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6 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: February Corn market.

Very possible the fall price(Oct. 2015) is the one that matters, not the spring price.  The spring price could be the lows for the year.

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Honored Advisor

Re: February Corn market.

Jec22,

 

Doesn't it take a crop diseaster issue to drive corn up in the growing season?

I figure I have seen my lifetime drought in the corn belt.

 

That hoping prices increases in july and August ----------- well lets just say, "I see the end users down here scramble for their end of year needs in April and May then they wait to skim the cheap cream off the new crop."  That picture makes me never expect the summer rally -------- happy when it happens, but ..............

 

Do you see indications of this year being that way?  Massive acre shifts away from corn and back to cheaper input crops??

 

There is a picture that keeps popping into my head.  I'll see if i can fit it in here............

image001.png

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Veteran Advisor

Re: February Corn market.

Maybe it is just as simple as the Good Lord gave us a good crop this year because we might need it to cover a short crop next year.

 

I know that is terribly unpopular line of thinking, but in the last few decades I have seen it work out that way a few times.

 

Kind of like putting some money away on the good years to cover to poor ones.  Used to be the 'normal' way of doing things.

 

Starting to see a concerning trend in soybean yields.  The soil is just holding to many 'diseases' when the rotation is C-S-C-S.  It seems to be making a big difference in field yields. If you have a field with not much soybean production in the past few years, the yield is quite a bit higher.  So, until there is a new soybean seed that can overcome this, we may have 'peaked' soybean yields. 

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Senior Contributor

Re: February Corn market.

jec. I agee with your comments.  And about the c-s-c-s rotation,  In my area a c-c-s rotation gives the beans a good yield adavantage, a known fact.  A third crop in that rotation?  Rye grain, hulless barley, oats,straw, and clover? Something is happening with the bean yields.

.75" last night.  A long slow harvest ahead.

 

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Advisor

Re: February Corn market.

I'm expecting to get there sw but I believe I am just in a better environment than most for corn pricing options.

Things will improve. I don't expect 5 bucks personally.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: February Corn market.

I think $4 is a real good possibility and if you can't at least break even there you need to make some changes